1. The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis for the Decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s The Atlantic Hurricane Database Reanalysis for the Decades of the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s Chris Landsea NOAA/Hurricane Research Division Miami, Florida, USA AMS Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Conference May 7th, 2004 Co-Authors: John Gamache, Steve Feuer, Joyce Berkeley, William Bredemeyer, David Glenn, Donna Thomas and Ryan Ellis Special Thanks: Michael Chenoweth, Cary Mock, Charlie Neumann, and the NHC Best Track Change Committee Acknowledgements: NOAA/OGP grant (GC02-093)

2. NOAA Dork Logo Uses of HURDAT

3. Open Atlantic Ocean Differences 1911 Hurricane Season 2000 Hurricane Season

4. Data Sources for the 1910s, 1920s, and 1930s PRIMARY marine and land station observations from the Historical Weather Map series ship observations included in COADS individual surface station records (Original Monthly Records) archived ship reports and logs from NCDC articles and records published in Monthly Weather Review SUPPLEMENTARY books with historical retrospectives technical memoranda journalistic accounts

5. Using Ship Observations to Estimate the Hurricane’s Location

6. Estimating Intensity with and without Aircraft Reconnaissance

7. The Beaufort Wind Scale Beaufort Knots Description Number 0 < 1 Calm 1 1-3 Light air 2 4-6 Light breeze 3 7-10 Gentle breeze 4 11-16 Moderate breeze 5 17-21 Fresh breeze 6 22-27 Strong breeze 7 28-33 Near gale 8 34-40 Gale 9 41-47 Strong gale 10 48-55 Storm 11 56-63 Violent storm 12 > 63 Hurricane

8. ATLANTIC PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS P(MB) GLFMEX <25N 25-35N 35-45N KRAFT P(MB) P(IN) 960 100 100 94 90 102 960 28.35 1) GLFMEX Vmax(kt)=10.627*(1013-p)**0.5640 n =664; r=0.991 2) <25N Vmax(kt)=12.016*(1013-p)**0.5337 n =1033; r=0.994 3) 25-35N Vmax(kt)=14.172*(1013-p)**0.4778 n =922; r=0.996 4) 35-45N Vmax(kt)=16.086*(1013-p)**0.4333 n =492; r=0.974 5)For Kraft Vmax(kt)=14.000*(1013-p)**0.5000 n =13; r= ?? Estimating the Central Pressure (Pr – Pc)/(Pe – Pc) = exp(-RMW/R)

9. Raw Data (Gales) for 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

10. Historical Weather Map Observations for the 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

11. 1911/04 - 2004 REVISION: 19930 08/23/1911 M= 8 2 SNBR= 457 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=2 19930 08/23/1911 M= 9 4 SNBR= 459 NOT NAMED XING=1 SSS=2 * * *** 19935 08/23* 0 0 0 0*237 668 50 0*241 674 50 0*245 680 55 0 19935 08/23* 0 0 0 0*252 655 35 0*255 665 40 0*258 674 40 0 *** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** ** 19940 08/24*250 687 65 0*254 693 70 0*258 700 70 0*262 707 75 0 19940 08/24*261 683 45 0*263 692 50 0*265 700 55 0*267 707 60 0 *** *** ** *** *** ** *** ** *** ** 19945 08/25*265 714 75 0*269 721 80 0*273 728 85 0*279 735 85 0 19945 08/25*269 714 65 0*272 721 70 0*275 728 70 0*280 735 75 0 *** ** *** ** *** ** *** ** Revised “Best Track” (HURDAT) Data for 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

12. Moderate adjustments to the track are made on the 23rd and 24th to better agree with available ship observations indicating a position farther north than originally shown... Track extended an additional day based upon HWM and Cline analyses... For the intensity at landfall (which may also in this case be the peak intensity of the system), evidence was available from winds, pressure, storm surge and damages. Highest observed winds were 82 kt in Charleston, with an estimate that the maximum that they reached after the anemometer was disabled was 92 kt. However, reducing for the high-bias of the instrument at the time alters these to 63 kt observed and 70 kt estimated (Fergusson and Covert 1924). Altering these to a maximum 1 min wind (Powell et al. 1996) gives 67 kt observed and 74 kt estimated.... A run of the inland pressure deficit decay model (also in Ho et al.) suggest a central pressure at the coast of 970 mb from the Atlantic coast model (South Carolina to New England) and 974 mb from the Florida peninsula model... 972 mb central pressure suggests 84 kt from the subtropical pressure-wind relationship. Ho et al.'s analysis of 27 nmi RMW has been reconfirmed and is close to that expected from climatology for this latitude of landfall and central pressure (25 nmi - Vickery et al. 2000), so no large deviation from 84 kt would be expected. A storm tide of 10.6 feet was reported in Charleston with moderate wind forced damage. Given that it is unlikely that Charleston experienced the exact peak winds of the hurricane at landfall, a value higher than that observed (and even estimated with some caution being taken) would be reasonable. Thus 85 kt maximum 1 min winds are analyzed for this hurricane at landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border near 0930 UTC on the 28th. This is at the low end of a Category 2, which is what is analyzed for conditions occurring in South Carolina... After landfall, a run of the Kaplan and DeMaria's (1995) inland decay model gave 60 kt at 28th/12 UTC, 47 kt at 18 UTC, 36 kt at 29th/00 UTC, and 30 kt at 06 UTC. Highest observed winds within 2 hours of these times were 73, 56, 52, and 37 kt... Winds in HURDAT slightly increased at 18 UTC on the 28th and reduced on the 29th and 30th, accordingly. The system is characterized on the 30th as extratropical in its decay over land, due to being absorbed by frontal system. Metadata File for the 1911 South Carolina Hurricane

21. U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes #/Date Time Lat Lon Max SS# RMW Cent. Envir. OCI States Wind Press. Press. Affected 3-8/11/1911 2300Z 30.3N 87.5W 70kt 1 ---- (985mb) 1013mb 235nmi AFL1,AL1 4-8/28/1911 0930Z 32.2N 80.7W 85kt 2 27nmi 972mb 1014mb 230nmi GA1,SC2 4-9/14/1912 0800Z 30.3N 88.4W 65kt 1 60nmi (988mb) 1007mb 155nmi AL1,AFL1 6-10/16/1912 1800Z 27.1N 97.4W 70kt 1 ---- (985mb) 1012mb 235nmi ATX1 1-6/28/1913 0100Z 27.1N 97.4W 65kt 1 ---- (988mb) 1009mb 175nmi ATX1 3-9/3/1913 0700Z 34.7N 76.5W 75kt 1 38nmi 976mb 1016mb 200nmi NC1 1914 - None

22. Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-Analysis Project Picture from: "Florida's Hurricane History", by Jay Barnes http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html 1911 through 1914 reanalysis submitted to NHC Remainder of 1910s, 1920s and 1930s being reanalyzed currently Pre-reconnaissance era completed by summer 2005