1. MODELING AND SIMULATION CS 313 Simulation Examples 1

2. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 2 In simulation, events usually occur at random times, the randomness imitating uncertainty in real life. For example, it is not known with certainty when the next customer will arrive at a grocery checkout counter. The randomness needed to imitate real life is made possible through the use of (random numbers). Many programming languages support RANDOM functions. In a Single-Server queuing system, interarrival times and service times are generated from the distributions of these random variables. The following table contains a set of five interarrival times generated in this manner. These five interarrival times are used to compute the arrival times of six customers at the queuing system.

3. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 3 The second time of interest is the service time. This table contains service times generated at random from a distribution of service times. The only possible service times are one, two, three, and four time units.

4. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 4 The next table was designed specifically for a single-channel queue which serves customers on a first-in, first-out (FIFO) basis. It keeps track of the clock time.

5. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 5 The occurrence of the two types of events in chronological order is shown in this Table. Chronological Ordering of Events

6. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 6 Distribution of Time Between Arrivals

7. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 7 A small grocery store has only one checkout counter. Customers arrive at this checkout counter at random from 1 to 8 minutes apart. Each possible value of interarrival time has the same probability of occurrence, as shown in Table 2.6. The service times vary from 1 to 6 minutes with the probabilities shown in Table 2.7. The problem is to analyze the system by simulating the arrival and service of 20 customers. Table 2.6: Distribution of Time Between Arrivals Table 2.7: Service-Time Distribution

8. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 8 The purpose of the exercise is to demonstrate how simple simulations can be carried out in a table, either manually or with a spreadsheet, not to recommend changes in the grocery store. (System productivity). A set of uniformly distributed random numbers is needed to generate the arrivals at the checkout counter. Random numbers have the following properties: 1. The set of random numbers is uniformly distributed between 0 and 1. 2. Successive random numbers are independent. Random digits are converted to random numbers by placing a decimal point appropriately. Since the probabilities in Table 2.6 are accurate to 3 significant digits, three-place random numbers will suffice. It is necessary to list only 19 random numbers to generate times between arrivals. Why only 19 numbers? The first arrival is assumed to occur at time 0, so only 19 more arrivals need to be generated to end up with 20 customers. Similarly, for Table 2.7, two- place random numbers will suffice.

9. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 9 The rightmost two columns of Tables 2.6 and 2.7 are used to generate random arrivals and random service times. The third column in each table contains the cumulative probability for the distribution. The rightmost column contains the random digit-assignment. In Table 2.6, the first random-digit assignment is 001-125. There are 1000 three- digit values possible (001 through 000). The time-between-arrival determination is shown in Table 2.8. Note that the first random digits are 913. To obtain the corresponding time between arrivals, enter the fourth column of Table 2.6 and read 8 minutes from the first column of the table. Alternatively, we see that 0.913 is between the cumulative probabilities 0.876 and 1.000, again resulting in 8 minutes as the generated time.

10. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 10 Table 2.8 Time-Between-Arrivals Determination

11. EXAMPLE 2.1 Single-Channel Queue 11 Service times for all 20 customers are shown in Table 2.9. These service times were generated based on the methodology described before.

12. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 12 1. The average waiting time for a customer is 2.8 minutes. This is determined in the following manner: 2. The probability that a customer has to wait in the queue is 0.65. This is determined in the following manner: 3. The fraction of idle time of the server is 0.21. This is determined in the following manner:

13. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 13 4. The average service time is 3.4 minutes, determined as follows: This result can be compared with the expected service time by finding the mean of the service-time distribution using the equation: Applying the expected-value equation to the distribution in Table 2.7 gives an expected service time of: The expected service time is slightly lower than the average service time in the simulation. The longer the simulation, the closer the average will be to E(S).

14. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 14

15. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 15 5. The average time between arrivals is 4.3 minutes. This is determined in the following manner: This result can be compared to the expected time between arrivals by finding the mean of the discrete uniform distribution whose endpoints are a = 1 and b = 8. The mean is given by: The expected time between arrivals is slightly higher than the average. However, as the simulation becomes longer, the average value of the time between arrivals will approach the theoretical mean, E(A).

16. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 16 6. The average waiting time of those who wait is 4.3 minutes. This is determined in the following manner:

17. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 17 7. The average time a customer spends in the system is 6.2 minutes. This can be determined in two ways. First, the computation can be achieved by the following relationship: The second way of computing this same result is to realize that the following relationship must hold:

18. Simulation findings (Output statistics) 18 From findings 1 and 4, this results in: Average time customer spends in the system (minutes) = 2.8 + 3.4 = 6.2 minutes A decision maker would be interested in results of this type, but a longer simulation would increase the accuracy of the findings. However, some subjective inferences can be drawn at this point.  Most customers have to wait.  The average waiting time is not excessive.  The server does not have an undue amount of idle time.  Objective statements about the results would depend on balancing the cost of waiting with the cost of additional servers.

19. EXAMPLE 2.2 The Able Baker Carhop Problem 19 This example illustrates the simulation procedure when there is more than one service channel. Consider a drive-in restaurant where carhops take orders and bring food to the car. Cars arrive in the manner shown in Table 2.11. There are two carhops Able and Baker. Able is better able to do the job and works a bit faster than Baker. The distribution of their service times is shown in Tables 2.12 and 2.13. The simulation proceeds in a manner similar to Example 2.1, except that it is more complex because of the two servers.

20. EXAMPLE 2.2 The Able Baker Carhop Problem 20

21. EXAMPLE 2.2 The Able Baker Carhop Problem 21 A simplifying rule is that Able gets the customer if both carhops are idle. Perhaps, Able has seniority. (The solution would be different if the decision were made at random or by any other rule.) The problem is to and how well the current arrangement is working. To estimate the system measures of performance, a simulation of 1 hour of operation is made. A longer simulation would yield more reliable results, but for purposes of illustration a 1-hour period has been selected. SYSTEM EVENTS:  A customer arrives,  A customer begins service from Able,  A customer completes service from Able,  A customer begins service from Baker,  And a customer completes service from Baker.

22. EXAMPLE 2.2 The Able Baker Carhop Problem 22 The row for the first customer id filled in manually, with the random- number function RAND() or another random function replacing the random digits. After the first customer, the cells for the other customers must be based on logic and formulas. For example, the (Clock Time of Arrival) (column D) in the row for the second customer is computed as follows: D2 = D1 + C2, (C2 is the time between arrivals 1 and 2.) The logic to compute who gets a given customer, and when that service begins, is more complex. We can accomplish it using function IF(), which returns one of two values depending on whether a condition is true or false. [The syntax is IF( condition, value if true, value if false).] The logic goes as follows when a customer arrives: If the customer finds Able idle, the customer begins service immediately with Able. If Able is not idle but Baker is, then the customer begins service immediately with Baker. If both are busy, the customer begins service with the first server to become free. The logic requires that we compute when Able and Baker will become free.

23. EXAMPLE 2.2 The Able Baker Carhop Problem 23

24. EXAMPLE 2.2 The Able Baker Carhop Problem 24 The analysis of Table 2.14 results in the following: 1. Over the 62-minute period Able was busy 90% of the time. 2. Baker was busy only 69% of the time. The seniority rule keeps Baker less busy (and gives Able more tips). 3. Nine of the 26 arrivals (about 35%) had to wait. The average waiting time for all customers was only about 0.42 minute (25 seconds), which is very small. 4. Those nine who did have to wait only waited an average of 1.22 minutes, which is quite low. 5. In summary, this system seems well balanced. One server cannot handle all the diners, and three servers would probably be too many. Adding an additional server would surely reduce the waiting time to nearly zero. However, the cost of waiting would have to be quite high to justify an additional server.