1. Recapitulation I: Simpson’s paradox  Principle: Collapsing a table over a variable can result in judgments that are in opposition to those based on all variables.

2. Recapitulation II: Simpson’s paradox  Exercise 2.4:

3. Recapitulation III: Simpson’s paradox  Exercise 2.5:

4. Recapitulation IV: Ecological fallacy  Treatment of clustered (grouped) data

5. Recapitulation V: Regression to the mean

6. Recapitulation VI: Lord’s paradox

7. Memory Judgments  Misleading information (Loftus)  Misinformation: realistic examples  Piaget  Ingram  Memory and psychological interventions Cognitive Mechanism: Encoding, retrieval, and forgetting of memory information

8. Memory Judgments Cognitive Mechanism: Reality monitoring Cognitive Mechanism: Source monitoring Explanation of Loftus’ results by means of source monitoring and reality monitoring

9. Memory Judgments: DRM paradigm  Basic experimental result  Explanation:  IAR  Reality monitoring  Source monitoring

10. Memory Judgments: Stability and Change  Experiment: Marcus, 1982  Explanation: Anchoring and adjustment  Mechanism  Experiment Tversky & Kahneman, 1974  Experiment: Conway & Ross, 1982

11. Memory Judgments: Hindsight Bias  Hindsight bias: Concept  Experiment of Fishoff & Beyth, 1975

12. Memory Judgments: Retrospective Evaluation  Basic Experiment  Application  Explanation: Snap-shot model

13. Probability Judgments: Heuristics and Biases  Heuristics & Bias program.  Bounded rationality: Satisficing vs. optimizing.  Heuristics:  Availability.  Representativeness.  Anchoring and Adjustment

14. Probability Judgments:  Availability heuristic:  Functioning.  Examples.  Imagination and Availability.  Personal Experience and Availability.

15. Exercices  Exercise 2-6: Ecological fallacy  Exercise 2-7: Lord’s paradox An Excel file comprising the data is on Gestens.