1. April 17, 2012 Tom Moore Air Quality Program Manager Western Governors’ Association WESTAR Council Meeting

2. WRAP working as regional technical center 2009 and before Formed in 1997 Tribes, states, locals, and federal agencies were very active via Committee / Forum structure Comprehensive, substantial range of technical work and policy initiatives for regional haze planning 2010 to present New Charter to provide regional technical support for air quality planning Flatter organization and less staff, revised Board membership Funding by states, FLMs, EPA, industry for current WRAP work No region-wide planning requirements immediately ahead: With 75 ppb Ozone standard and progress checks for Regional Haze SIPs, application of regional technical data and project results will be case-by-case, for a range of due dates Future – will need to continue to seek out opportunities from a variety of funders to complete regional technical work for WRAP members 2

3. Coordination on Analysis and Planning June 2011 WRAP-EPA Western modeling / emissions workshop Over 50 participants Followup with technical workgroups underway - periodic calls WRAP managing ongoing emissions and modeling studies Closely reviewed and coordinated with federal agencies, states, and locals Regional technical work provides consistent, comprehensive, and regionally comparable data for state and federal agency planning WRAP coordinates through WESTAR Planning Committee to identify needs and SIP applications 3

4. Regional Haze: Reasonable Progress Reports (remaining EPA grant funds for contractor support, $67k) WRAP producing a comprehensive, regionally-consistent technical report Regional, state, and Class I area reports Technical analyses required by Regional Haze Rule Western states will use as a common basis in preparing individual SIP revisions SIP revisions due 2013-15 IMPROVE Report - June 2011 Covers all Class I areas, contains tracking metrics and calculation methodology for 2005-09 data Case studies of 2000-04 vs. 2005-09 averages WRAP providing western 2008 emissions data States will use to evaluate changes in monitored visibility Project timeframe: April through November 2012 4

5. Western Biogenic Emissions Improvement Project (WESTAR, $128k) Update western biogenics emissions data: Key input to modeling and planning for NAAQS and Regional Haze, especially ozone Better land use and land cover information, updated algorithms and factors More highly-resolved input data Produces new MEGAN biogenics model for use in regional and state analyses 2008 biogenic emissions files for air quality modeling Project completed March 2012 Scope and work products directed by project steering committee of expert staff from NPS, EPA R10, Colorado APCD, Utah DAQ, Maricopa County (AZ) AQD, and Clark County (NV) AQMD 5

6. Biogenic Emissions Biogenic emissions are VOCs from vegetation, CO and NO from soils Biogenics frequently dominate VOC emissions Natural precursors to ozone and particulate matter Natural, but influenced by human activity, e.g., crops and forestry Emissions from vegetation, mostly from the leaves of plants, are the largest source of VOC in the global atmosphere VOC emissions from cars, factories, and fires dominate in urban and industrial areas 6

7. Improving the Biogenic Emissions Inventory for the West – project goals and applications Improve biogenic emission inventories for AQ planning by western States SIP modeling WestJump AQMS New state-of-science biogenic emission model for modeling and planning o MEGAN v2.10 o Up to date biogenic emissions model procedures and input variables o Tool useable for future ozone, PM, regional haze modeling - any day, any year Targeted inventory evaluations and improvements Use of satellite data for solar radiation and cloud cover Compared MEGAN to EPA’s model Emphasis on the West – i.e., improved Western U.S. land-use and landcover data at higher resolutions 12 and 4km 2 7

8. Highlight – vegetation inputs varying from insect kill and ecosystem changes 8 Change in average vegetative cover for the first week in July during 2003-05 compared to 2010-11, as seen from satellites. These seasonal changes of dead vs. live leaves are important inputs in calculating biogenic emission inventories for year-specific air quality studies.

9. Additional air quality evaluation needs with new Biogenics EI data Sensitivity of ozone and PM to biogenic emission improvements Further improvements to biogenic emissions in urban areas would require field studies Biogenic emissions will respond to changes in climate Plant distributions change Emissions responses to temperature and drought Recovery of vegetation and biogenic emissions after major fires and insect outbreaks Use typical vegetation density as basis for AQ planning? Do different species re-grow? 9

10. Oil & Gas: Emissions Inventories and Control Analysis (substantial Western Energy Alliance funding for contractor support: also EPA, States of WY and ND funds to supplement) Key source category for Ozone and PM standards, and Regional Haze Exploration and production activity increasing WRAP report with analysis of current and proposed controls for use by states Data used in current OAQPS national and western modeling work Significant funding and involvement by industry WRAP workgroup reviews data – states, feds, industry, environmental groups Current phase of funding and project work started late 2007, to be complete December 2012 10

11. Oil & Gas Study Area: Emissions Inventories and Control Analysis 11

12. West-Wide Jumpstart Air Quality Modeling Study (State of NM $191k, BP $30k, BLM national air program $500k) Updated baseline analysis year for the West Leverages 2008 NEI and key western data and studies Regional results provide data and context for state planning Integrates recent updates to modeling tools Addresses current transport and background studies Highly resolved meteorological modeling Regionally consistent and comprehensive emissions Photochemical modeling 2008 base case model performance evaluation Source apportionment Started June 2011, to be complete December 2012 12

13. WestJumpAQMS Area EPA, States, and FLMs working together on: Project scope, including modeling protocol development, extensive documentation Emissions data input review Modeling and source apportionment review 13

14. Tracking and Managing Smoke Significant impacts to both local and regional air quality Large summer wildfires Prescribed and agricultural burns in spring and fall States and tribes manage both planned burns and impacts from wildfires FLM FireScience project enables continuing operation of WRAP’s Fire Emissions Tracking System (http://www.wrapfets.org/) Used daily by western states, tribes, and federal agencies to track planned fire and manage smoke Used by states and OAQPS to evaluate 2008 NEI 14

15. Assessment of Smoke’s Contribution to Ozone (FLM FireScience Program, $370k) Turns complex analyses of historic fire events into web-accessible results Improves forestry and agricultural fire emissions for 2002 and 2008 Source apportionment modeling to assess fire’s contribution to ozone Analysis to describe how fires contribute to ambient ozone concentrations Collaboration involves EPA western RO and FLM staff, leverages WestJumpAQMS Products for FLMs and states to use in SIP process and Exceptional Events demonstrations Project timeframe: January 2012 through March 2013 Recent proposal on Fire’s Impact on PM (11/2011) to FireScience Program with similar scope 15

16. Federal Leadership Forum / 3-State Air Quality Study (funded by BLM, USFS, EPA, others in-kind) Steering committee of WY, CO, UT, EPA, BLM, NPS, and USFS Implementation of 3-State and national MOUs Planning for air quality impacts of energy development Ozone focus, additional rural monitoring stations in oil & gas basins Wintertime ozone nonattainment areas Integrates results from WestJumpAQMS and Oil & Gas projects Data warehouse to support future air quality modeling and other analyses “Acceleration Phase” adds emissions modeling and analysis during 2012-13 Part-time coordinator role: ongoing through 2014, may be extended 16

17. Applying Data from Western Regional Technical Studies in the Near-Term Leveraged studies address both regulatory planning needs and fill gaps where data are needed Tracking key western source categories / source areas Analysis of Ozone and PM background and transport during elevated episodes Background data for SIP planning Includes impacts of fire on ozone Better oil & gas, fire, biogenics emissions data Improves assessment of natural vs. anthropogenic contributions 17

18. Next Steps for WRAP Continue coordination of regional analysis and planning activities Potential future opportunities include: Analyses to develop regional air quality management strategy for oil & gas Supports future SIP work and/or national rulemakings Western regional analysis of fire and dust exceptional events Protocol to follow in conducting analysis Provides data to state and federal air programs to assist in Exceptional Events flagging and air planning activities Track background and transport Regional air quality studies to: Leverage updated emissions and monitoring data Anticipate and address planning requirements 18