1. The impact of post 2012 climate Policies on European air quality Kristin Rypdal, CICERO

2. Objective To evaluate how options for post-Kyoto climate policies affects emissions and effects of air pollution across Europe –Structural changes in energy use –Shifts in emissions between regions –Costs Previous studies has shown that climate policies reduces costs and redistribute CO 2 emissions to regions where abatement costs are less –SO 2 more influenced than NO x

3. Background Project initiated by the Nordic Council of Ministers running 2005 and 2006 CICERO (Nathan A. Rive), DMU (Jesper Bak), IVL (Stefan Åström) and SYKE (Finland) Using the macroeconomic model GRACE at CICERO and the RAINS model Ongoing “post-Kyoto polcies” projects All scenarios use the same RAINS technical measures in CLE CAF Preliminary results – plan expansion of scope

4. Options Cap on greenhouse gas emissions in Europe –(none) –As Kyoto –Further reductions from Kyoto (1 % per year) No cap on emissions in eastern Europe Emission trading scheme: Additional sectors Additional policies (taxes on non-ETS sectors) Trading with non-EU countries –Allowance of hot air trade CDM not considered

5. CO 2 emissions

7. SO 2 emissions (2020/2010)

8. NOx emissions (2020/2010)

9. SO 2 emissions (2020/2010)

10. NOx emissions (2020/2010)

11. Effects

13. Costs Costs of additional RAINS technical measures (MFR scenario) to reach the emission level of each of the climate policy scenarios,

14. Conclusions Post 2012 climate policies are unsettled and introduces an uncertainty about costs for revisions of ceilings The effect of climate policies on air quality in the second commitment period (or post-Kyoto) is smaller than in the first –Especially SO 2 in Nordic countries + EU-12, NO x the same –Very strict targets or no policy at all are unlikely Eastern-European participation in emission trading and their policies form a large uncertainty as such trading will redistribute emissions and have large consequences for environmental effects Large share of CDM projects means that more technical measures are needed to reduce air pollutant emissions Role of Carbon Capture and Storage?

15. More work…