1. CAE Meeting – Zurich April 2004

2. 17-Nov-2003 - 2 - What’s your expectation?

3. 17-Nov-2003 - 3 - What’s your expectation?

4. 17-Nov-2003 - 4 - What’s your expectation?

5. 17-Nov-2003 - 5 - What’s your expectation?

6. 17-Nov-2003 - 6 - What’s your expectation?

7. 17-Nov-2003 - 7 - What’s your expectation?

8. 17-Nov-2003 - 8 - Loss ratio Analysis: Balance between stability and responsiveness

9. 17-Nov-2003 - 9 - Cumulative Effect of Rate Changes Simple Math; full appreciation of business effect is another thing

10. 17-Nov-2003 - 10 - Long-term, which is more stable, loss trend or price movements?

11. 17-Nov-2003 - 11 - Is this all the risk? − NO: − The Tail can bump up loss ratios of ALL accident years − Future loss trends might change − Quality of the book; accuracy of Price Monitoring; Terms and conditions − And don’t forget Excess Loss

12. 17-Nov-2003 - 12 - Price Movements: Method − Process: − Focus on renewed accounts − Price comparisons per account level are calculated after consideration of movements in: premium, exposure, share, and policy/program structure (deductibles, attachment points and limits). − Cases of extreme movement in coverage terms are excluded to avoid undue bias. − Cases resulting in extreme case movements are reviewed by pricing actuaries/underwriters to ensure data quality. − Aggregate results to relevant market level.

13. 17-Nov-2003 - 13 - Price Movements: Limitations − Price Movements should factor additional factors before being applied to loss ratios: − multi-year accounts − Quality of business lost; quality And price adequacy of new business − Loss trends − Change in terms and conditions − Reinsurance cost

14. Thank You