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A tool for improved space weather predictions: the CME expansion speed. Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie Katlenburg-Lindau Germany Instituto Nacional.

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Presentation on theme: "A tool for improved space weather predictions: the CME expansion speed. Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie Katlenburg-Lindau Germany Instituto Nacional."— Presentation transcript:

1 A tool for improved space weather predictions: the CME expansion speed. Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie Katlenburg-Lindau Germany Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Sao Jose dos Campos - SP Brazil A. Dal Lago, R. Schwenn Sept., 2001

2 Space Weather Geophysical Research Letters / 15 July 1998

3 Space Weather Shock

4 Space Weather Shock Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

5 Coronal Mass Ejections - CME Limb Halo LASCO C2LASCO C3EIT 195LASCO C2LASCO C3EIT 195

6 Coronal Mass Ejections - CME Limb CME Halo CME LASCO C2LASCO C3

7 Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs Sept. 28, 1997 LASCO C2

8 Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs Sept. 28, 1997 LASCO C3

9 Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs S85W

10 Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs July 25, 1999 S85W S75E S85ES70WS55W LASCO C3

11 Halo CMEs from Jan. 1997 to Apr. 2001

12 Halo CMEs and Interplanetary association Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

13 Interplanetary signatures and CME association Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

14 Halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

15 CME expansion speed Vexp Vrad Vpr LASCO C3

16 Vexp Vrad Limb CMEs 57 events from 1997 to 2001 Criterion: EIT 195 activity close to the limb (maximum 30 deg.).

17 Halo CMEs Frontal speed x travel timeExpansion speed x travel time Vexp Vpr Vfr

18 Halo CMEs Frontal speed x travel timeExpansion speed x travel time Vexp Vpr Vfr

19 Full halos only Ago. 25 th 2001

20 LASCO C2LASCO C3EIT 195

21 Solwind CMEs and Helios 1 Solwind coronagraph Helios 1 + 32 degr. Period: 1979 - 1982 56 events - 45 where Vcme and Vip were possible to be obtained.

22 Solwind and Helios 1 Vexp Vcme Helios1 Solwind: Vcme Vexp Solwind + Helios: travel time - avg. propagation speed - travel time to 1 AU 1 AU

23 Expansion speed x shock speed at 1AU

24 Propagation speed x shock speed at 1AU

25 Conclusions Limb CMEs show a linear relation between Vexp and Vrad There is a good correlation found between the expansion speed (Vexp) of halo CMEs and the travel time to 1 AU. The halo expansion speed (Vexp) can now be used to predict the travel time of CMEs. There is still substantial uncertainty, indicating that processes occurring during the “trip” of the CMEs from the sun to 1 AU may play an important whole. 4 out of 81 full front side halo CMEs never reachead the earth - false alarms! 12 out of 146 transient IP shocks were not related to any CME - prediction missed! 1 out of 30 intense storms and 4 out of 78 moderate storms were not related to any CME - storm prediction missed! All very intense (Dst<-200 nT) were related to halo CMEs.

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