1. Colorado’s budget: Meeting the challenges of Colorado’s aging population Wade Buchanan President Rich Jones Director of Policy and Research

2. The Bell Policy Center What We Do: We make opportunity happen by driving public policies that help Coloradans get ahead and stay ahead. How We Do It: Identify – We uncover and research systemic barriers to opportunity in Colorado. Engage – We build coalitions, drive discourse and build understanding of those barriers and how to address them. Advocate – We formulate, propose and promote public policy solutions that lower those barriers through the legislative, ballot and regulatory processes.

3. Today’s conversation Budgets are about income, expenditures and trends. Colorado’s current budget is significantly constrained: Outdated revenue system Constitutional restrictions Growing needs Long-term trends are creating a serious imbalance. The aging of the population is the best example

4. Current budget issues

5. Source: Legislative Council December 2015 Forecast

6. Source: Joint Budget Committee Appropriations report

7. Source: Joint Budget Committee Appropriations Report

8. Source: CSU Fiscal Sustainability Study 2013 and CDOT

9. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Illinois State College of Education Higher Education State Support Tables

10. Source: Joint Budget Committee Appropriations Report

11. Source: 2015 Colorado Commission on Higher Education presentation on the state of higher education

12. Source: Legislative Council Budget Forecasts

13. Source: Legislative Council December 2015 Forecast

15. Source: Legislative Council December 2015 Forecast and Joint Budget Committee Appropriations Report FY15-16

16. Source: Center for Colorado’s Economic Future

17. Long-term trends

18. 66% increase in longevity since 1900 One of the great achievements of the 20 th Century Sea-level rise, not a tsunami. # Plan4Aging Source: National Vital Statistics Reports, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

19. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

20. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

21. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

22. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

23. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

24. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

25. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

26. Colorado’s growing aging population # Plan4Aging Source: Colorado State Demographers Office, Department of Local Affairs

27. # Plan4Aging Source: S. Kaye, C. Harrington, and M. Laplante (2010). Analysis of 2005 SIPP, 2007 NHIS, 2007 NHHS and the 2005-2006 Medical Expenditure Survey

28. # Plan4Aging Source: Joint Budget Committee Appropriations Report

29. # Plan4Aging Source: Center for Colorado’s Economic Future, Kaiser Medicaid Spending and enrollment statistics, State Demography Office

30. General Fund contributes $0 to Medicaid expansion under ACA # Plan4Aging Source: Joint Budget Committee Staff Briefing Document

31. An aging population leads to lower General Fund revenues Fewer workers More households living on retirement incomes and changing purchasing patterns More elders living off savings # Plan4Aging Source: Business research division, Leeds School of Business

32. # Plan4Aging Based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2004-2014. Calculations based on Colorado Taxable goods and includes Alcoholic Beverages, Apparel and Services, Food Away from Home, Household Furnishings and Equipment, Housekeeping Supplies, Personal Care Products and Services, Reading, Tobacco Products and Smoking Supplies, and Vehicle Purchases (net outlay) divided by Total Average Annual Expenditures Source: Business research division, Leeds School of Business

33. Source: Center for Colorado’s Economic Future

34. Takeaways – the current budget State revenues constrained by an outdated revenue system and restrictive Constitution. Even though the state is not yet able to meet its needs in areas like education or transportation, the Constitution requires General Fund rebates to taxpayers. We need a state conversation about updating our revenue system and funding priorities.

35. Takeaways – long-term trends The aging of our population is a long-term and permanent social change due to increased longevity. The aging of our population will drive growth in long-term care and Medicaid expenditures. An older population likely means lower revenues. We need a state conversation and a state plan, which is what the Strategic Action Planning Group on Aging is charged with producing. # Plan4Aging

36. The Bell Policy Center 1905 Sherman St. Suite 900 Denver, CO 80203 Phone: (303) 297-0456 Rich Jones Jones@bellpolicy.org 303-297-0456 x224 Wade Buchanan Buchanan@bellpolicy.org 303-297-0456 x221 bellpolicy.org