1. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 1 What the Weather Will Bring or Agricultural Weather in Wisconsin Wisconsin Agri-Service Association 9 th Annual Trade Show 30 January 2003 Lake Delton, WI Prof. John A. Young & E. J. Hopkins Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences University of Wisconsin-Madison

2. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 2 Our Road Map u Introduction u What we have: Current Maps u What we think: Analysis & Forecasts u Who and Where we are

3. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 3 Current Drought Conditions from National Drought Mitigation Center

4. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 4 U.S. Drought Monitor Map from National Drought Mitigation Center u Considers: –Agricultural, Hydrological Drought –Fire Danger u Depends Upon: –Palmer Drought Index (PDSI) –CPC Soil Moisture Model –USGS Weekly Streamflow –Percent of Normal Precipitation –Standardized Precipitation Index –Satellite Vegetation Health Index

5. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 5 Drought Conditions: Since Early November 2002 from National Drought Mitigation Center

6. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 6 December Precipitation From Climate Prediction Center

7. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 7 Current Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

8. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 8 Current Crop Moisture Index

9. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 9 Precipitation Needed to Bring PDSI to -0.5

10. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 10 Recent Soil Moisture from CPC

11. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 11 Recent Soil Moisture from CPC

12. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 12 Current 30 Day Precipitation Departure From Midwestern Regional Climate Center

13. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 13 Current Soil Moisture Departure From Midwestern Regional Climate Center

14. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 14 Recent Streamflow (from USGS)

15. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 15 Standardized Precipitation Index for Nov-Dec 2002 ( from NCDC )

16. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 16 History of Statewide PDSI From National Climate Data Center Drought Wet Drought

17. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 17 History of Wisconsin Statewide Precipitation From Moran & Hopkins, 2002 Wet Dry

18. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 18 Monitoring Current Sea Surface Temperatures From Climate Prediction Center

19. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 19 Jet Stream during Dec. 2002

20. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 20 El Niño Winter Temperature Impact

21. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 21 El Niño Winter Temperature Impact

22. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 22 From National Climate Data Center (NCDC) based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)

23. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 23 El Niño Spring Precipitation Impact

24. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 24 El Niño Spring Precipitation Impact

25. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 25 Dec. 2002 Precipitation Ranks From National Climate Data Center (NCDC) based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)

26. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 26 From National Climate Data Center (NCDC) based on 108 yrs. (1895-2002)

27. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 27 Saturday’s Forecast of PDSI from Climate Prediction Center

28. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 28 CPC Soil Moisture Forecast at end of Next Week

29. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 29 CPC Soil Moisture Forecast at end of Next 2 Weeks

30. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 30 LATE WINTER FORECAST From NOAA Climate Prediction Center

31. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 31 THREE MONTH DROUGHT FORECAST From NOAA Climate Prediction Center

32. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 32 THE WISCONSIN STATE CLIMATOLOGY OFFICE your resource for weather and climate information u John A. YoungDirector u Lyle AndersonData Manager u Traci WestphalAsst. Climatologist u Ed HopkinsConsultant UW-Madison Partner: Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences WHO WE ARE

33. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 33 WHERE WE ARE 1225 W. Dayton St., Madison

34. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 34 Climatological Divisions for Wisconsin (NCDC)

35. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 35 Contact u John A. Young Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences UW-Madison 1225 W. Dayton 608/262-2828 u John A. Young Dept. of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences UW-Madison 1225 W. Dayton 608/262-2828 jayoung@facstaff.wisc.edu u Edward J. Hopkins hopkins@meteor.wisc.edu

36. Ag Talk 30 Jan 2003 36 Useful Links u State Climatology Office http://www.aos.wisc.edu/~sco/ u Midwestern Regional Climate Center http://mrcc.sws.uiuc.edu/ u Climate Prediction Center (NWS) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ u National Climate Data Center (NCDC) http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html u Drought Monitor http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html u Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (USDA & NOAA) http://www.usda.gov/oce/waob/jawf/ u NOAA Drought Information Center http://www.drought.noaa.gov/