1. Jorge Vazquez Universidad Del Norte Barranquilla, Columbia 11/16/2012 Jorge.Vazquez@jpl.nasa.gov Jet Propulsion Laboratory/Caltech How the Oceans Ended the Climate Debate Global Warming Guaranteed

4. What causes global warming?

6. What really causes global warming?

7. Rise of CO 2

8. Side of Quelccaya ice cap, Peru Annual layers Lonnie Thompson How do we know?

10. What happens to the heat?

11. Where does the heat go?

12. Heat Capacity Heat capacity is the amount of heat required to change an object’s temperature The oceans have 1000 x the heat capacity of the atmosphere

13. Energy Balance Atmosphere Earth Warms A New Balance A Warmer World

14. Earth Warms Energy Balance: The Ocean Planet This takes 1000 years!!!

16. So is global warming real?

19. To overturn the world economy based on the musings of a few idiot leftist scientists is just stupid, that’s what Global Warming is all about. -Rush Limbaugh-

20. Sea Level Rise

21. Floats Satellite Observations of SSH

22. Heating or Melting? addition of heat 25% (2”) Thermal Expansion addition of freshwater + 75% (6”) Add Mass Ice Melt = Total sea level rise 100% (8”)

23. Potential Contributions Thermal Expansion: ~1 meter (3 feet) Sea Ice Melt Does NOT raise sea level Melting Land ice does! So does iceberg calving

24. Historic Sea Level Rise Plots by Robert A. Rohde for Global Warming Art: http://www.globalwarmingart.com/ ~ 0.25 mm/yr ~ 2.0 mm/yr Recent rates of sea level rise are 100 times larger than historic rates. 9000 years 120 years

25. Tide Gauge Observations [Church and White, 2006] ~ 8 inches (20 cm)

26. Tide Gauge Observations Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year [Church and White, 2006] ~ 8 inches (20 cm)

27. Tide Gauge Observations 0.8 mm/year 2.0 mm/year 3.2 mm/year [Church and White, 2006] ~ 8 inches (20 cm)

28. Satellite Observations

29. Sea Level Rise from Altimetry

30. The Ocean Conveyor Belt

31. What’s up with the ice sheet?

32. Evacuate the Country!!!

34. Rapid Cooling Was the Conveyor Belt to Blame? Maybe, back then

35. The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt

36. The Great Conveyor Belt

37. Could this Really Happen?

38. 0.29 0.19 0.03 1.65 0.54 0.15 Hu et al., GRL, 2009 Shutdown Today unlikely

39. Knight et al., GRL, 2005 Still, AMOC could be important for regional climate HadCM3 1400-year unforced, coupled model run

40. ∆Precip ∆SST Coupled Model: Shutting Down the AMOC Vellinga & Wood, Climatic Change, 2002 Cooling: Hurricane Connection? African Drought Brazilian Rainfall SW Australian Drought US Rainfall

41. The Overturning at 41°N Mean:15.5 Sv RMS: 2.4 Sv Trend: ~ 2.4 Sv increase

42. Probably safe for today….

43. The Future Aquarius and Salinity from Space

44. Measured as grams of salt per 1000 grams of water. In the ocean varies between 32 to 38 parts/thousand.

46. Schematic of Hydrological Cycle

51. Aquarius URLs and information Aquarius URLs and information –http://aquarius.jpl.nasa.gov/AQUARIUS/ http://aquarius.jpl.nasa.gov/AQUARIUS/ –http://aquarius.nasa.gov/ http://aquarius.nasa.gov/ –http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/AQUARIUS/ –http://podaac- www.jpl.nasa.gov/SeaSurfaceSalinity http://podaac- www.jpl.nasa.gov/SeaSurfaceSalinityhttp://podaac- www.jpl.nasa.gov/SeaSurfaceSalinity 51

52. Animation Courtesy of Remote Sensing Systems, Santa Rosa California

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