1. UNCLASSIFIED 304 th Civil Affairs Brigade Commanders Update Brief October 2015

2. UNCLASSIFIED

3. BLUF: (U) : There are recent reports of new Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) cases in West African Countries. Increased transmission is unlikely due to the enhanced capacity to rapidly identify a re-emergence of the EVD by international responders. (U) Three new confirmed cases of EVD were reported in the week to 18 October, all of which were reported in Guinea. The country had reported zero cases for the previous 2 weeks. Of the 3 new cases, 1 was reported from the capital, Conakry, and 2 were reported from the subprefecture of Kaliah, Forecariah. (U) The case from Conakry, a 21-year-old male, was reported from the Ratoma area of the city. Investigations to identify the origin of infection are ongoing (U) Robust surveillance measures are essential to ensure the rapid detection of any reintroduction or re-emergence of EVD in currently unaffected areas. Nine operational laboratories in Guinea tested a total of 654 new and repeat samples in the week to 18 October //Analyst comments // The EVD has largely been contained due to the increased international response. Guinea is the only country reporting new cases as of late October. Sierra Leone and Liberia are eagerly awaiting the end of the 42 day count down, expected in early November. New cases are likely to be responded to immediately, making it unlikely the EVD will reappear in Sierra Leone or Liberia by November. Ebola Virus Disease (U) Geographical distribution of confirmed cases reported in the week to 11 October 2015

4. UNCLASSIFIED BLUF: (U) : 300 US military personnel sent to Cameroon to conduct ISR and counter BH operations supporting the Lake Chad Basin regional actors. (U) Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari met the US military's Africa Command chief General David Rodriguez in Abuja, Buhari has spearheaded efforts for a new, five-nation fighting force against BH (U) Diplomatic relations between Abuja and Washington were strained under Buhari's predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, over the United States' refusal to sell weapons to Nigeria. Buhari claims the embargo on weapons is helping BH. (U Washington last year provided intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance expertise to Nigeria in the hunt for more than 200 girls abducted from their school.The assistance included drones and spy planes as well as up to 80 military personnel sent to Chad's capital, N'Djamena. //Analyst comments // BH has been able to move unimpeded throughout the Lake Chad basin and conduct cross-border attacks in Cameroon, Chad and Nigeria. It is likely that the US troops were sent to Cameroon due to the current political relationship with Nigeria, and the MNJTF current inoperable status. It is possible that ISR could lead to increased kinetic operations against BH by Nigeria and the MNJTF Sourced: OSINT / AFP Boko Haram Nigerian President Mohammadu Buhari (R) shakes hands with Commander of United States Africa Command, General David Rodriguez, during his visit to the presidency in Abuja, on October 14, 2015 (AFP Photo/)

5. UNCLASSIFIED BLUF: (U) : There is growing concern that Europe may unwittingly divide migrants into two distinct classes. It is possible that the immigration policies to be enforced will alienate different refugee groups and prevent a refugee status being granted to those truly in need. (U) Two distinct categories feared: Syrians fleeing the war back home, whose stunning flight into Europe has seized world attention; and the hundreds of thousands of much poorer, less educated newcomers who have also fled dire circumstances in Africa. (U) African refugees are unconvinced by EU’s claims of fairness when evaluating refugee status. Several African asylum-seekers in Sicily described overwhelming bureaucratic hurdles towards those goals — a far different picture than the tens of thousands of Syrians whom the E.U. and U.S. now appear willing to host. (U) European Commission President, announced a new €1.8-billion fund for Africa that will be financed from the EU’s operating budget. The fund is meant to address “root causes of illegal migration in Africa” //Analyst comments // The current refugee crisis from Syria has overshadowed the African refugee crisis. EU resources and political strength are likely to be strained further, leading to possible ‘selective’ granting of refugee status. African immigrants are likely to be unassisted by the EU an may remain in IDP camps in host countries or risk travel by sea. These IDP camps are often targets of opportunity by violent groups like BH. Sourced : OSINT / TIME Refugee Crisis Migrants wait to disembark from the Irish Navy vessel LE Niamh at the Messina harbor in Sicily, on Aug. 24, 2015.