3. By development we mean

5. By sustainable we mean …. (able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

6. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

7. Nordhouse

8. richpoor GNP PPP/person $26,320$4,450 population (billion) 1.25.3 % increase/year 0.11.5 % with HIV/AIDS 0.51.4 infant mortality rate 6/100059/1000 children/woman1.63.0 life expectancy 7665 % urban 7641 people/km 2 2464 Today’s divided world

9. Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org

10. GDP Wealth increases 7yr doubling 10 yr doubling

11. GDP = C + I + E + G C = Consumer Spending I = Investment made by industry E = Excess of Exports over Imports G = Government Spending

12. HDI - Human Development Index ° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be. ° Health - life expectancy ° GDP - the usual measure of welfare Add them up, normalize, range from.0 to 1.000 Norway is top rank, Niger bottom (2007) US is #10, China #86,Australia #3

13. GDP can be high and development low

14. Life expectancy

15. Gapminder

16. The distribution appears to have two parts

17. Gapminder Which direction is causation? Does improved health create wealth, or does wealth lead to improved health?

18. Infant mortality

20. Maternal mortality

21. Young female illiteracy

22. Growth in tertiary education

23. Scientific research output (publications)

24. Human development HDI A few countries are re-ordered but top and bottom remain

25. Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source: www.worldmapper.org

26. Human development declines

27. The Economist Nov 2009: Somalia wins worst country ranking

28. Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading The Happy Planet Index! GDP per capita PPP adjusted Life expectancy x Life satisfaction Ecological footprint

29. Even the Happy Planet Index is bi-modal The Happy Planet Index!

30. Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure). What governs the current global distribution of welfare? Does geography/environment matter?

31. The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

32. GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs)

34. xtxt X t+1 45 ° X t+1 = F( x t ) Simplest growth scenario

35. xtxt X t+1 Solow growth More realistic growth model

36. xtxt X t+1 Solow growth Are poor countries here?

37. xtxt X t+1 Stagnation - poverty trap xcxc Growth

38. Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

39. Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

40. xtxt X t+1 xcxc Growth Stagnation

41. xtxt X t+1 xcxc Growth Stagnation

42. What causes this development gap?

43. How big is the problem?

45. Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to prosper, then closing the development gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic output.

46. BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least 40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution.

47. All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a: 6-8 fold increase economic for only a 50% population increase What’s the problem?

48. If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the century the world’s economic output would have increased by ??

49. 80 fold

50. The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless relative to population. Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.

51. Can development get started?

52. Can prosperity be maintained?

54. Malthus was not entirely right

55. Population total Growth rate % IR 1960

56. Population growth arises serious questions 50% growth Everybody in the 60”s UN projections of population increase

57. Demographic transition

58. Age pyramids in rich and poor regions

60. What causes this development gap?

61. Climate is zonal, the tropics are under the most stress now In a warmer world there will be more stress

62. 62 Why are the climate zones – deserts, rainforests, glaciers, etc -- where they are? For more information about this map see: http://www.blueplanetbiomes.org/climate.htm Climate Zones according to Köppen

63. 63 A three cell structure Hadley Cell Mid-L. Cell Polar Cell

64. 64 Rain forests here Deserts here

65. 65 Climate zones are (almost) rainfall zones

66. Malaria Ecology Index

67. Overlap of Hookworm and Malaria

68. Agro-ecological zones

71. Does this say that aggressive appropriation of energy assets is needed for growth?

72. World coal production

73. World coal proven reserves

74. Carbon dioxide per capita 2002

75. Ecological debtors and creditors >50% in debt > 50% in credit

77. Is aggressive appropriation of the biosphere necessary for development or a consequence of it?

78. Is wealth or poverty the greatest threat to biodiversity loss?

79. The developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

80. Nor can the top billion having taken one pathway to prosperity continue along the same pathway without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

81. Is this the only way development can happen? What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

82. Ideal green spot What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

83. What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

84. “Are our dealings with nature sustainable? Can we expect world economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future? Should we be confident that our knowledge and skills will increase in ways that will lessen our reliance on nature despite our growing numbers and rising economic activity?” Sir Partha Dasgupta