1. 16-Mar-16 1 Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

2. 16-Mar-16 2 Outline Team CompositionTeam Composition Vision / BenefitsVision / Benefits Goals / TargetsGoals / Targets Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps Key SolutionsKey Solutions Outstanding R & D NeedsOutstanding R & D Needs SummarySummary

3. 16-Mar-16 3 Tropical Cyclones Team Composition Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) Scott Kiser (NWS/OS)Scott Kiser (NWS/OS) Richard Knabb (TPC)Richard Knabb (TPC) Miles Lawrence (TPC)Miles Lawrence (TPC) Xiaofan Li (NESDIS)Xiaofan Li (NESDIS) Frank Marks (OAR/HRD)Frank Marks (OAR/HRD) Morris Bender (GFDL)Morris Bender (GFDL) Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL)Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL) Gregg Engel (JTWC)Gregg Engel (JTWC) Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC)Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC) Robert Tuleya (NCEP)Robert Tuleya (NCEP) Frank Wells (WFO/Guam)Frank Wells (WFO/Guam) Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)

4. 16-Mar-16 4 Tropical Cyclones Vision / Benefits 2025 Vision 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt 2025 Vision 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers Mitigate Property Loss Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development….)

5. 16-Mar-16 5 Tropical Cyclones Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA Performance Measure FY01 Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target 48-hr Track Error (nm) 12512890 Other Performance Measure FY01 Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target 48-hr Intensity Error (kt) 15.915.413.9 On Track Low Risk High Risk

6. 16-Mar-16 6 Hydrologic Services Goals/Targets to FY 12 Existing GPRA (G) or Strategic Plan (S) Performance Measure Curren t Skill FY07 Goal Target FY12 Target 48-hr Track Error (nm) (G) 12512812090 48-hr Intensity Error (kt) (S) 15.915.415.413.9 On Track Low Risk High Risk

7. 16-Mar-16 7 Tropical Cyclones Key Information Gaps (not ranked) Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing StormsImproved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity ForecastMore Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Understanding of Model Guidance UncertaintyUnderstanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty More Precise Position of Circulation CenterMore Precise Position of Circulation Center Higher Resolution Storm Wind DataHigher Resolution Storm Wind Data

8. 16-Mar-16 8 GapSolutionsImpact More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast Targeted/Adaptive ObservationsTargeted/Adaptive Observations NOAA Aircraft Instrumentation UpgradeNOAA Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrade Advanced DA of Remote and In- Situ Atmosphere and Ocean ObservationsAdvanced DA of Remote and In- Situ Atmosphere and Ocean Observations Aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar windsAircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar winds EnsemblesEnsembles Hurricane WRFHurricane WRF JHT ResultsJHT Results About 12% Increase in Numerical Model Intensity Forecast SkillAbout 12% Increase in Numerical Model Intensity Forecast Skill About 25% in Increase in Numerical Model Track Forecast SkillAbout 25% in Increase in Numerical Model Track Forecast Skill Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty EnsemblesEnsembles Statistical GuidanceStatistical Guidance JHT ResultsJHT Results TrainingTraining Reduced Overwarning of Coastal HazardsReduced Overwarning of Coastal Hazards Tropical Cyclones Key S&T Solutions

9. 16-Mar-16 9 GapSolutionImpact Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms JHT ResultsJHT Results Ocean ObservationsOcean Observations Hurricane WRF (Improved Physics…)Hurricane WRF (Improved Physics…) GPS DropsondeGPS Dropsonde SFMRSFMR Saved Lives/Enhanced Public SafetySaved Lives/Enhanced Public Safety Improved Track and Intensity ForecastsImproved Track and Intensity Forecasts Improve Other Measures (Marine, QPF, Aviation)Improve Other Measures (Marine, QPF, Aviation) Higher Resolution Storm Wind Data Aircraft radar windsAircraft radar winds Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades ( e.g., SATCOMM… )Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades ( e.g., SATCOMM… ) WSR-88D radar winds (done)WSR-88D radar winds (done) Improved Intensity and Track ForecastsImproved Intensity and Track Forecasts Improved Storm PhysicsImproved Storm Physics Improved Storm-Surge ForecastImproved Storm-Surge Forecast Improved QPFImproved QPF More Precise Position of Circulation Center Satellite/Aircraft Remote SensingSatellite/Aircraft Remote Sensing Reduced Track ErrorReduced Track Error Tropical Cyclones Key S&T Solutions

10. 16-Mar-16 10 Tropical Cyclones Key S&T Solutions Current Programmatic Phase 03 04 05060708 09 10 1112 02 Adaptive Obs *Hurricane WRF Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models *Advanced DA of Satellite Data *Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes…) Targeted Obs* *Oceanic DA Enabling Process *JHT Tech Transfer HWRF 7km Core Init *GFS Ensembles *Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques *Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA

11. 16-Mar-16 11 Tropical Cyclones Outstanding R&D Needs Rapid Intensity Changing StormsRapid Intensity Changing Storms Shear Effects on Track and IntensityShear Effects on Track and Intensity Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model OutputStatistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output Improved Data AssimilationImproved Data Assimilation Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…)Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…) Model Physics SensitivitiesModel Physics Sensitivities Ensemble TechniquesEnsemble Techniques Adaptive Observations/TargetingAdaptive Observations/Targeting Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits

12. 16-Mar-16 12 Tropical Cyclones Summary R&D Needs Rapid Intensity Changing StormsRapid Intensity Changing Storms Shear Effects on Track & IntensityShear Effects on Track & Intensity Statistical “Guidance-on-GuidanceStatistical “Guidance-on-Guidance Improved Data AssimilationImproved Data Assimilation Improved Model PhysicsImproved Model Physics Model Physics SensitivitiesModel Physics Sensitivities Ensemble TechniquesEnsemble Techniques Adaptive ObservationsAdaptive Observations Predictability LimitsPredictability Limits Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades Expand Targeted Observations Implement Hurricane WRF Data Assimilation Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques Expand Adaptive Strategies New Satellite Remote Sensing Increasing Performance Joint Hurricane Testbed 2007 2012 2020 2002 Vision 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt

13. 16-Mar-16 13 Tropical Cyclones Summary Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilationImproved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilation Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & DIntensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & D

14. 16-Mar-16 14 BACKGROUND SLIDES Tropical Cyclones

15. 16-Mar-16 15 Backup

16. 16-Mar-16 16 Backup

17. 16-Mar-16 17 PublicPublic MediaMedia Federal, State, Local GovernmentFederal, State, Local Government DODDOD 53 WRS53 WRS State EMA’sState EMA’s WMO RA-IVWMO RA-IV MarinersMariners Private SectorPrivate Sector Tropical Cyclones Primary Customers/Partners

18. 16-Mar-16 18 Tropical Cyclones Key Products/Services

19. 16-Mar-16 19 Tropical Cyclones S & T Roadmap (Insert Spreadsheet)(Insert Spreadsheet)