1. Beyond 10Gbps Requirements for Success Ken Gold Nortel Salt Lake City, February 2005

2. 2 Three Factors for Success 1.Is the Technology Feasible?

3. 3 Three Factors for Success 1.Is the Technology Feasible? 2.Is the Technology Deployable?

4. 4 Three Factors for Success 1.Is the Technology Feasible? 2.Is the Technology Deployable? 3.Is there an Application Need?

5. 5 Is the Technology Feasible? >Is “Beyond 10G” Feasible? 40 Gbps modules available from at least two vendors At least 1 product on the market today with a 40G interface Qwest field trial (Chicago to Chattanooga) Recent reports of 160Gbps TDM field trials  Lots of examples of Field and Lab Trials

6. 6 Is the Technology Deployable? Checklist for success To be commercially successful a 40 Gbps line rate system must:  Be completely compatible with existing 10 Gbps line rate systems  Deployable on a 10 Gbps footprint  Not impact existing 10 Gbps systems  Have the same performance as a 10 Gbps system  Have similar PMD/ PDL performance as a 10 Gbps system  Have the same optical connectivity capabilities as a 10 Gbps system (OADM, Branching)  Deployable in a 10 Gbps line system  Improve the outside plant transport business case  Be cheaper than 4 x 10 Gbps

7. 7 Is 40G deployable cost effectively? The vast majority of applications have better economics at 10Gbps! Significant innovation required in deployability costs! 10Gbps proves In40Gbps proves In Traditional Prove-in for Next Generation Line Rate YES NO 5 10 15 20 30 40 nodes 1.01.52.55.07.51015 total traffic (Tbps) Applicability of 40 Gbps IM-DD Line Rate Systems 1.01.52.55.07.51015 5 10 15 20 30 40 total traffic (Tbps) nodes Significant cost impact due primarily to Polarization Mode and Chromatic Dispersion

8. 8 Impact of PMD on 40G Reach 40G IM-DD 10G IM-DD (40G via I-Mux) DGD=30ps Specification : 1 error event per 20 years per 100 channels Reach (km) fiber PMD coefficient (ps/km 1/2 ) 00.51.01.5 3K 2K 1K Legend: IM-DD:Intensity Modulated Direct Detection I-Mux:Inverse Multiplexing DGD:Differential Group Delay PMD:Polarization Mode Dispersion 0 PMD greatly limits the reach of 40G systems Significant innovation required in deployability costs! >0.1 ps/km 1/2 is typical for modern NDSF fiber plant

9. 9 Is the Technology Deployable? Checklist for success To be commercially successful a 40 Gbps line rate system must:  Be completely compatible with existing 10 Gbps line rate systems  Deployable on a 10 Gbps footprint  Not impact existing 10 Gbps systems  Have the same performance as a 10 Gbps system  Have similar PMD/ PDL performance as a 10 Gbps system  Have the same optical connectivity capabilities as a 10 Gbps system (OADM, Branching)  Deployable in a 10 Gbps line system  Improve the outside plant transport business case  Be cheaper than 4 x 10 Gbps   Significant innovation still required to address this fully ?

10. 10 Is there an Application Need? >Is there an application that requires a 40 Gbps service? As opposed to 4 x 10 Gbps >How large is the demand? >What’s the market willing to pay for it? ? This is the key question in determining the success of 40G

11. 11 Thank You