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Sea Level Rise in the North East Jennifer Iacono
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In the past century, seas have risen six inches (15 centimeters), a pace ten times faster than the average over the last 2,000 years.
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Sea Level Change in Recent Geological Time
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Temperature Change
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Global Warming By 2050 15 to 35 percent of the 1,103 species studied will be at risk of extinction
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In the last century, the average temperature has climbed about 0.6 degrees Celsius around the world.
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Carbon Dioxide Emissions Carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has increased about 30% enhancing the atmosphere’s ability to trap heat.
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Partial Melting of Glaciers and Ice Sheets Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) of the rise has resulted from the melting of mountain glaciers. St. Mary’s Lake in Montana’s Glacier National Park
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Thermal Expansion Another 2-7 cm has resulted from the expansion of ocean water that resulted from warmer ocean temperatures.
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And If the Ice Sheets Melted … Greenland Ice Sheet -raise oceans 20 feet West Antarctic Ice Sheet - 20 feet East Antarctica - nearly 200 feet All the planet's alpine glaciers combined - 1.5 feet Greenland Ice Sheet -raise oceans 20 feet West Antarctic Ice Sheet - 20 feet East Antarctica - nearly 200 feet All the planet's alpine glaciers combined - 1.5 feet March 5-7, 2002 Larson B Ice Shelf Jan 31, 2002
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If Nothing Melted at all … A Global temperature increase of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, would still raise the seas one foot due to thermal expansion.
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Blue is historic sea level rise Yellow is a high estimate
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Low-lying Coastal Areas that have Already Experienced a Relative Rise in Sea Level Caused by subsidence of the land through geological processes or extraction of underground oil or water.
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What Countries Are at Risk? "We in the Pacific, the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean contribute little or nothing to the problem, and yet we will be the first to suffer. Our survival is at stake.” --Bikenibeu Paeniu Prime Minister of Tuvalu, a South Pacific island nation
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BangladeshBangladesh A one meter rise in sea level would inundate 17% of Bangladesh and put 118 million people at risk. Loss of land due to future sea level rise in Bangladesh (1m and 3m).
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The Mid-Atlantic Region The highly populated Mid-Atlantic region is especially at risk, and it is predicted to see a 0.09-0.88 meters rise in sea level over the next 100 years (EEA 2004).
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Why the Mid-Atlantic? The mid-Atlantic is experiencing a greater rate of relative sea level rise because the entire region is sinking. During the Ice Age, the mass of the glaciers caused an upward bulge around the edges, and part of the continent has caused adjacent areas to subside. The mid-Atlantic is experiencing a greater rate of relative sea level rise because the entire region is sinking. During the Ice Age, the mass of the glaciers caused an upward bulge around the edges, and part of the continent has caused adjacent areas to subside.
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The United States Along most of the U.S. coast, sea level has been rising 2.5-3.0 mm per year, amounting to 10-12 inches per century.
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New Jersey The areas depicted in red (1.3 meters above mean sea level) will be above mean sea level for at least 100, and probably 200, years. Maryland coast Vulnerable Mid Atlantic
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Delaware Bay Mean spring high water (i.e., high tide during new and full moons) is typically 60 cm above sea level, the 1.3-meter contour would be flooded a few times per month by a 70 cm rise in sea level.
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New Hampshire Along the coast of New York, which typifies the United States, sea level is likely to rise 26 cm by 2050 and 55 cm by the year 2100. New York
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What Would a Rise in Sea Level Do? (1) inundate wetlands and lowlands (2) erode shorelines (3) exacerbate coastal flooding (4) increase the salinity of estuaries and aquifers and otherwise impair water quality (1) inundate wetlands and lowlands (2) erode shorelines (3) exacerbate coastal flooding (4) increase the salinity of estuaries and aquifers and otherwise impair water quality
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The Bruun Rule Initial condition Immediate inundation when sea level rises Subsequent erosion due to sea level rise X= necessary sand
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ErosionErosion
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FloodingFlooding
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Sea Level Rise Increases Risk of Flooding Four Ways (1) Higher base upon which storm surges would build; surges would also penetrate farther inland (Kana et al. 1984). (2) Removal of protective barriers. (3) Losses of wetlands (Louisiana Wetland Protection Panel 1988). (4) Decreased drainage causes rainstorms and river surges (Titus et al. 1987). (1) Higher base upon which storm surges would build; surges would also penetrate farther inland (Kana et al. 1984). (2) Removal of protective barriers. (3) Losses of wetlands (Louisiana Wetland Protection Panel 1988). (4) Decreased drainage causes rainstorms and river surges (Titus et al. 1987).
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Billion Dollar US Floods
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Increased Salinity of Rivers, Bays, and Aquifers
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Impact on Water Table A) Shifts the entire water table up 1 meter B) Narrows the water table by 40 cm for every 1 cm that the sea level rises C) Eliminates groundwater supplies for the lowest islands
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Estimates of Rising Sea Level for US The EPA ’ s low estimate the shoreline retreat from a one meter rise in sea level would cost the United States 270 to 475 billion dollars.
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Future of Bangladesh It is projected that by 2030 SLR would be about 30 cm and by 2050 it would be about 50 cm. A 45-cm rise in mean sea level will lead to a potential loss of 15,668 km2 area (10.9%) of the country exposing about 5.5 million people (5%) of the country(IPCC). It is projected that by 2030 SLR would be about 30 cm and by 2050 it would be about 50 cm. A 45-cm rise in mean sea level will lead to a potential loss of 15,668 km2 area (10.9%) of the country exposing about 5.5 million people (5%) of the country(IPCC).
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ConclusionsConclusions Scientists and officials from some 70 nations have expressed indicated that in several noteworthy cases, the impacts could be disastrous; that in a few cases impacts would be trivial; but that for most coastal nations, at least for the foreseeable future, the impacts of sea level rise would be serious but manageable if appropriate actions are taken.
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