1. ECMWF Slide 1 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 ECMWF Status Report Operational changes since 18 th North America / Europe Data Exchange Meeting and short term plans Jean-Noël Thépaut ECMWF (and many colleagues from the Centre)

2. ECMWF Slide 2 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 OUTLINE Cycle 29R2 (28 June 2005) Cycle 30R1 (1 February 2006). The higher-resolution forecasting system T799/L91, T255 4D-Var Other changes Short (and long) term plans

3. ECMWF Slide 3 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Model Cycle 29R2 (28 June 2005) Initial 1D-Var+4D-Var assimilation of SSM/I rain affected radiances Changes to AIRS assimilation Introduction of Meteosat-8 (MSG) winds New Jb stats (from recent ensemble of data assimilation) Modifications to humidity analysis (less increments in areas with high CAPE, reduced spinup) Modifications to convection scheme (bugfix for negative mass flux, implicit momentum+tracer transport) Revision of the initial perturbations for the EPS Introduction of SMHI Baltic sea ice

4. ECMWF Slide 4 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 1D-Var + 4D-Var assimilation of SSM/I rain affected radiances The 1D-Var observation operator developed for this project is the most complex ever, and the good (Gaussian) distribution of (obs-background) is a remarkable result The change resulted in a small global moistening and a reduction of the tropical precipitation spin-down Comparisons with independent estimates of the TCWV (Jason) are improved Short-term forecasts of humidity improve in the tropics; The effect is still limited otherwise (w not part of the control variable)

5. ECMWF Slide 5 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 1D-Var Observation operator:  Lin. Large-scale condensation  Lin. Convection  RTTOV-SCATT Post-screening SSM/I TB’s Scan-bias correction Interpolation to model grid Pre-screening TCWV-observation 4D-Var Air-mass bias correction Implementation

6. ECMWF Slide 6 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Assimilation of rain-affected microwave radiances and improvement of humidity analysis e-suite ops Global 1.74 1.90 N. Hemisphere 1.63 1.71 Tropics 2.12 2.43 S. Hemisphere 1.53 1.62 N. Atlantic 1.63 1.69 N. Pacific 1.57 1.69 stdev (kg/m 2 ) Comparison of cycle 29r2 e-suite and operations with independent TCWV retrievals from Jason microwave radiometer (may 2005)

7. ECMWF Slide 7 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 CY29R2:0001 CY29R2 no TCWV:exp Area: TC Katrina Dropsonde Departure Statistics: 20050823-20050830 Radiosonde: Specific humidity Dropsonde: Windspeed Dropsonde: Temperature

8. ECMWF Slide 8 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Changes to AIRS assimilation retune existing bias model coefficients new surface emissivity model intelligent thinning of AIRS data new observation errors (long-wave channels) VIS / NIR cloud information VARBC technical changes

9. ECMWF Slide 9 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Changes to AIRS assimilation Impact of changes : Significant increase in tropospheric AIRS data use (mostly due to thinning and emissivity model) Small forecast improvement No change to stratospheric oscillations Stratospheric channels usage unchanged Tropospheric / surface sensing channel usage increased Channel wavelength

10. ECMWF Slide 10 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 IR10.8 µm WV6.2 µm WV7.3 µm QI>60 “USED” WINDS Blacklist forms part of selection: QI>85 IR: no winds between 700-460hPa WV cloudy 6.2: no winds below 400hPa WV cloudy 7.3: no winds below 600hPa WV cloudy and IR: no winds below 250hPa level in the Tropics (25S-25N) VIS: no winds above 700 hPa 2-4 Dec 2005 An assimilation experiment was carried out for 89 days. Forecast scores for up to forecast day 10 showed a neutral overall impact:  NH: slightly positive to neutral  SH: slightly negative to neutral  Tropics: neutral Introduction of MSG (Meteosat-8) AMVs

11. ECMWF Slide 11 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 29R2: Operational change in June 2005 Scores positive in Europe (99% statistical significance at day 3 and 98% at day 7) Scores positive in Northern Hemisphere (99% statistical significance at day 3 5 and 7) Scores neutral in Southern Hemisphere Day Anomaly correlation of 500hPa forecasts for Europe Mean from 1 Dec 2004 to 28 June 2005 Cycle 29r2 Cycle 29r1

12. ECMWF Slide 12 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 The 30r1 suite, T799/L91 (1 Feb 2006) T799 horizontal resolution (12min time step) 4D-Var increments at T255 (30min time step) Vertical resolution increased to 91 levels Model top raised to 0.01hPa Grid-point humidity and ozone in 4D-Var Changes to the wave model -Resolution increased from 0.5° to 0.36° -Use of Jason altimeter wave height data and ENVISAT ASAR spectra in the wave model assimilation. ERS-2 SAR spectra no longer assimilated. Changes to EPS -Resolution increased from T255L40 to T399L62 (30min time step). -Wave model resolution unchanged at 1°, but number of frequencies increased from 25 to 30, and number of directions changed from 12 to 24.

13. ECMWF Slide 13 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Three problems encountered 1)Humidity at the top of the model (in the mesosphere) increased slowly in data assimilation 1)Solved by scaling down the humidity increments 2)Occasional instabilities of the TL (over steep orography) 2)Addressed by more precise handling of the NL trajectory 3)A strong jet develops in the tropical mesosphere 3)Addressed by retuning Rayleigh friction Parallel runs restarted with 30r1 Altogether (RD + OD) the whole period from 1 st July to change date + Summer 2004 ~300 cases

14. ECMWF Slide 14 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Statistical significance, t-test, 500hPa height Green denotes T799L91 better (red) would denote T799L91 worse Day 3Day 5Day 7 N Hem AC RMS 0.5% 0.1% - 2% ---- S Hem AC RMS 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Europe AC RMS 0.5% 0.1% 5% 0.1% ---- 260 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005

15. ECMWF Slide 15 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Other statistics from the high resolution suite More observations are accepted by the data assimilation in the E-suite (e.g. 20% more synop winds!) The background and the analysis are in average closer to synop winds The observation cost function at the end of the minimization is smaller in the E-suite despite of the increased number of observations Forecasts from the E-suite verify better against radio- sonde winds, especially for Europe and the Tropics Ocean wave forecasts from the E-suite are substantially better

16. ECMWF Slide 16 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Forecasts of Katrina for 12 UTC, Monday 29 August Operational T511 L60 72h forecast 36h forecast Operational T511 L60 Test T799 L91 Test T799 L91 + + + +

17. ECMWF Slide 17 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Other changes over the last year Use of warmest FOV of AIRS NOAA-18 -HIRS operationally monitored -AMSU-A and MHS operationally assimilated Operational monitoring of MTSAT-1R AMVs New bias correction coefficients implemented on February 8

18. ECMWF Slide 18 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 NOAA-18 AMSU-A in operations Radiances from the NOAA-18 AMSU-A instrument have been monitored / bias corrected and were successfully introduced to operations on the 8 th September NOAA-18 AMSUA channel 8 (O-B) Passive monitoring OPS

19. ECMWF Slide 19 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 NOAA-18 HIRS/MHS passive monitoring Data from the NOAA-18 HIRS and MHS instruments have been passively monitored and bias corrections have been established. Impact of MHS in assimilation mode revealed neutral to slightly positive. NOAA-18 HIRS channel 4NOAA-18 MHS channel 5 Monitoring of the NOAA-18 MHS show that the radiances are less noisy than those from the AMSU-B (confirming improved instrument design for METOP) NOAA-16 AMSUB channel 5 NOAA-18 MHS channel 5 Standard deviation of (O-B)

20. ECMWF Slide 20 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Active data Z anomaly correlation scores: OVERALL NEUTRAL impact. Only significantly positive result: NH 200hPa – day 3. MTSAT: An assimilation experiment was carried out for 31 days (Aug 2005). Data selection same as GOES-9 but with QI > 85. Results below are using JMA’s forecast dependent QI. 1-31 Aug 2005 80 60 40 20 0 SH 0 20 40 60 80 FG OBS IR (1953) 80 60 40 20 0 Tropics 0 20 40 60 80 FG OBS IR (8726) 80 60 40 20 0 OBS IR (4751) 0 20 40 60 80 FG NH WIND SPEED Control-experiment Z 500hPa 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 days Mean difference / (100% - mean score) Control-experiment Z 200hPa 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 days Mean difference / (100% - mean score)

21. ECMWF Slide 21 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 8 February 2006 – New radiance bias correction Applied statically, but derived from variational scheme to be implemented with cycle 30r2 pressure (hPa) Sonde-bg Contol Sonde-bg New bias correction Sonde-an Control Sonde-an New bias correction Temperature (K) N Hem RMS error of 300hPa tropical temperature forecasts New bias correction Control Mean from 8-31 Jan 2006 Day

22. ECMWF Slide 22 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Data from twenty-eight sources used daily Large increase in number of data used daily Use of satellite data today

23. ECMWF Slide 23 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Short term plans EPS extension to day 15 -T255 perturbed forecasts from day 10 to day 15 -T399/255 control to day 10/15 -Also uniform T399 control to day 15 and T255 control to day 21 Variational radiance bias correction Thinning of low-level AMDAR data Improved treatment of ice sedimentation and autoconversion to snow in cloud scheme Implicit treatment of convective momentum transport To be used for T255L91 interim reanalysis for 1989 - …. To be used in version 3 of Seasonal Forecasting System?

24. ECMWF Slide 24 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Also for 2Q or 3Q 2006: Introduction of turbulent orographic drag scheme Use of albedo fields from MODIS Use of high-resolution NCEP SST fields Refinements to stratospheric analysis Recalibrated radiosonde temperature bias corrections

25. ECMWF Slide 25 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 And for 4Q 2006: 4D-Var changes: -3rd inner loop -revised trajectory interpolation -revised data usage, including modified Var QC -new cloud and convection schemes in minimization Upgrade fast radiative transfer to RTTOV-9 Change model short-wave radiation scheme to RRTM-SW Unified medium-range/monthly EPS Start of GEMS constituent reanalyses for 2003/4 And for the use of new satellite data: Monitoring and later assimilation of data from: -AMSR-E, TMI and SSMIS (for clear-sky and then rainy conditions) -CHAMP, COSMIC and GRAS -FY-2C, Met-9 -METOP ATOVS + preparation for IASI -Preparation for GOME-2 and ASCAT

26. ECMWF Slide 26 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 GPS RO (CHAMP) assimilation trials 1D and 2D obs operators, June/July 2004 Polar stratospheric bias and oscillations are largely improved by GPS data Operational assimilation of CHAMP data will start as soon as data are received in real-time (expected end 2005), then COSMIC and GRAS

27. ECMWF Slide 27 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Longer-term elements of four-year plan: Ensemble component to data assimilation Explore long-window weak-constraint 4D-Var Exploit METOP, ADM, SMOS and other new satellite data Continue refinement of physical parametrization Assess need and plan if required for new dynamical core Coastal zone model for ocean waves and storm surges Prepare for next resolution upgrade

28. ECMWF Slide 28 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Longer-term elements of four-year plan: New stochastic physics and high res moist SVs for EPS Couple ocean and sea-ice throughout unified EPS Develop OPA-based Seasonal Forecasting System Establish GEMS system for constituent analysis Continue interim reanalysis and prepare for ERA-65/75

29. ECMWF Slide 29 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 The GEMS project has started Funded by European Commission under Framework Programme 6 (one of the GMES IPs) ECMWF and 25 partner institutes in Europe Deliverables: -An operational capability for global analyses and forecasts of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O), reactive gases (O3, NO2,SO2, CO, HCHO) and aerosols (5 categories initially) -A reanalysis of the recent period and validation against in situ measurements -Use as much satellite and in situ data as possible -Provide boundary conditions for regional air quality models and organize a European-size inter-comparison between regional air quality models

30. ECMWF Slide 30 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 CO 2 Comparison with flight data from Japan Air Lines Flight data kindly provided by H. Matsueda, MRI/JMA

31. ECMWF Slide 31 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 The interim reanalysis -will start soon with T255L91, 4D-Var and cycle 30r2 (?) -will run from 1989 onwards, and be continued in close to real time -will use mostly same pre-2002 data as ERA-40, but will include  reprocessed winds from EUMETSAT  reprocessed ERS altimeter data  GOME profile data from RAL  improved radiosonde bias corrections European Regional Reanalysis (EURRA) -potential for a European regional reanalysis project (EURRA) is being explored with NMSs and EEA A new major reanalysis (ERA-65 or -75) in due course -funding has to be secured ECMWF plans for reanalysis

32. ECMWF Slide 32 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Much improved 500hPa height forecasts Day Southern hemisphere Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height, averaged for 12UTC forecasts from 1 January to 31 December 1989 ERA-new ERA-40 Operations Northern hemisphere

33. ECMWF Slide 33 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 ECMWF Strategy for 2006-2015 The principal goal of ECMWF in the coming ten years will be to maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events Complementary goals are: -To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to- interannual forecasts -To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models (and regional CTMs) -To deliver real-time analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition -To carry out climate monitoring through regular reanalyses of the Earth-system -To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System

34. ECMWF Slide 34 19 th NA-EUROPE data exchange meeting, 3-5 May 2006 Thank you