1. Supply and demand scenarios for EU27 David Blanchard, European Commission EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Outline of presentation. Current situation of EU27. Projections to 2020 -Baseline scenario -New Energy Policy scenario -Moderate and high oil price variants. Infrastructures development. General conclusions

3. EU27 primary energy demand - 2006. Consumption 1825 Mtoe. Fossil fuels ~ 80% of the energy mix

4. EU27 indigenous production - 2006. Indigenous production 880 Mtoe. Import dependency 54%

5. EU27 power generation - 2006. Diversified electricity mix but greater dependency on gas (from 7 to 21% over 1990-2006)

6. EU 27 primary energy demand - 2020 Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices Primary energy consumtpion in Mtoe -15% -7.5% Source: PRIMES model

7. EU 27 fossil fuel production (Mtoe) - 2020 Baseline High prices Moderate prices New Energy Policy High prices Moderate prices

8. EU 27 Net imports (Mtoe) – 2020 Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices

9. EU 27 Fuel mix (% in primary energy) – 2020

10. EU27 primary consumption of gas (Mtoe) - 2020 Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices

11. EU 27 gas imports (Mtoe) - 2020 Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices Net gas imports in Mtoe -37% stable Source: PRIMES model

12. EU 27 import dependency (%) - 2020

13. Infrastructures development. Strategic Energy Review » Priority projects » Solidarity and responsability mechanisms. 3rd internal market package to stimulate investment along agreed 10-year plans. Financing from EIB and others to cover non- commercial risk and Recovery Action Plan. TEN-E Green Paper (  EU Energy Security and Solidarity Instrument), Communications on LNG, refineries

14. Southern gas corridor Mediterranean energy ring N-S interconnections within Central and South-East Europe LNG North Sea offshore grid Baltic interconnection plan priority projects Infrastructure

15. Conclusions General perspectives. Conclusions of the gas crisis to be drawn. ‘Vision for 2050’ to be prepared. Cooperation with stakeholders