1. Strategic Convection Products at the AWC - Review of 2005 - P/CCFP experiments Presentation to Friends & Partners of Aviation Weather Jack May, Director Aviation Weather Center November 11, 2005

2. Working Together to Save Lives CCFP Review for 2005 Thanks to Jennifer Mahoney, Stacey Seseske, Mike Kay, and Sean Madine Forecast Verification Section Global Systems Division Earth Systems Research Laboratory

3. Working Together to Save Lives FCST CCFP 2005 Accuracy (PODy) & Bias Review OBS FCST OBS PODy 1.0 Bias 4.0 PODy 0.0 Bias 1.0 FCSTOBS PODy 1.0 Bias 1.0

4. Working Together to Save Lives Figure 3. Monthly averaged PODy scores for convective seasons 2001 through 2005. Scores are from verification of CCFP with the 40-km NCWD. Inset shows the monthly convection (averaged 2001-2005) as percent coverage over the CONUS. Historical Comparison (2001-2005)

5. Working Together to Save Lives Figure 8. Monthly averaged bias scores for convective seasons 2001 through 2005. Scores are from verification of CCFP with the 40-km NCWD. Inset shows the monthly convection (averaged 2001-2005) as percent coverage over the CONUS. Historical comparison (2004 vs. 2005)

6. Working Together to Save Lives Consistency Figure 9. Monthly time series of 2004 and 2005 consistency scores and the corresponding percentiles. http://www-ad.fsl.noaa.gov/fvb/publications/articles/kay_consistency_ARAM2004.pdf

7. Working Together to Save Lives Figure 12. The frequency of different combinations of coverage and confidence attributes of CCFP polygons issued over the period 3 April – 1 October 2005. For all lead times combined.

8. Working Together to Save Lives Probabilistic CCFP Experiment

9. Working Together to Save Lives Probabilistic CCFP Experiment Goals Give decision tool developers gridded forecasts on an operational basis while providing legacy product.Give decision tool developers gridded forecasts on an operational basis while providing legacy product. Determine workstation enhancements needed to produce probabilistic forecast contours and grids in time allotted.Determine workstation enhancements needed to produce probabilistic forecast contours and grids in time allotted. Help user community to define ‘probability of WHAT?’Help user community to define ‘probability of WHAT?’ Allow users to view probabilistic CCFP contours and evaluate potential utility.Allow users to view probabilistic CCFP contours and evaluate potential utility. Help forecasters ‘tune’ their probabilistic forecasts through verification.Help forecasters ‘tune’ their probabilistic forecasts through verification. Increase reliability and accuracyIncrease reliability and accuracy

10. Working Together to Save Lives Side-by-Side PCCFP & CCFP

11. Working Together to Save Lives Side-by-Side PCCFP & CCFP

12. Working Together to Save Lives Gridded Equivalent (4x actual resolution) 78 38 75

13. Working Together to Save Lives Future P-CCFP Work FY2006FY2006 Improve Graph-to-Grid conversion (e.g., better identification of min and max)Improve Graph-to-Grid conversion (e.g., better identification of min and max) Improve efficiency of workstation contour construction on workstation.Improve efficiency of workstation contour construction on workstation. Get Users into the discussion: “Probability of WHAT?” and relevance of P-CCFP.Get Users into the discussion: “Probability of WHAT?” and relevance of P-CCFP. How best to construct and display flight level & storm top information?How best to construct and display flight level & storm top information? Another experiment.Another experiment. FY2007/08 (pending funding)FY2007/08 (pending funding) How to best to collaborate contours?How to best to collaborate contours? Derive legacy CCFP from probability contours.Derive legacy CCFP from probability contours. Develop verification information for tool makers and producers.Develop verification information for tool makers and producers. Operational Test and EvaluationOperational Test and Evaluation