Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 air planet people Learning to Love Volatility Understanding Risk Boulder 25 October 2015 Mari Tye air.

Published byJennifer Parrish Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 air planet people Learning to Love Volatility Understanding Risk Boulder 25 October 2015 Mari Tye air."— Presentation transcript:

1 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 air planet people Learning to Love Volatility Understanding Risk Boulder 25 October 2015 Mari Tye air planet people

2 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 2 “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get” Mark Twain

3 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 3 IPCC AR5 (2014) Volatile and Changing Temperature Anomaly (1961-1990) ( o C) 1860190019502000

4 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 4

5 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 2014 1980 1000 0 2000 1990 Increasing Frequency of Natural Hazards Geophysical Weather Flood Climate Munich Re 200 400 600 800 2010

6 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Understanding Risk 1 in 100 return period = 1% per year ALSO = 27% chance in 30 years! OR 13% of twice in 100 years What is your realistic risk tolerance?

7 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 7 Resistance ≠ Resilience

8 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 8 Resilience Connectedness Potential Conservation Gunderson & Holling (2002) Growth Release Reorganization

9 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 What is Graceful Failure? Failure isn’t IF but WHEN and HOW BADLY Basis of earthquake building design Incorporates redundancy Continue operations at reduced level Quicker recovery Allowance for uncertainty Failure at ACCEPTABLE risk levels

10 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 What is Graceful Failure? 10

11 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Resilience in Boulder 11

12 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Cascading Uncertainty 12 Wilby and Dessai (2010) Decision-Making

13 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Graceful Failure Allows for volatility and uncertainty Considers the whole system Applies to many different decisions Enhances resilience 13 Tye et al. (2015) Proc. ICE Forensic Engineering

14 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Mission: Enabling improved societal planning for weather and climate extremes through: Partnering academia, governments, businesses & communities Using cutting-edge engineering, science and technology Developing tools in support of decision-making Reducing catastrophic impacts through graceful failure.

15 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Societal Planning Tools Global Risk, Resilience and Impacts Toolbox (GRRIT): Open source Developed by the community Fully supported Flexible to future technology and user demands.

16 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 Framework Database

17 community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 www.ecep.ucar.edu UCAR AtmosNews: Engineering for Disaster ecep@ucar.edu @ECEPNCAR

Download ppt "Community resilience modeling UR Boulder Oct 2015 air planet people Learning to Love Volatility Understanding Risk Boulder 25 October 2015 Mari Tye air."

Similar presentations

Global Framework for Climate Services – Health 26 th October 2012 Perspective from the Climate Service for use and research Professor Virginia Murray Health.

Global Framework for Climate Services – Health 26 th October 2012 Perspective from the Climate Service for use and research Professor Virginia Murray Health.
RESILIENCE The terms vulnerability and resilience

RESILIENCE The terms vulnerability and resilience
Climate Change, Energy, and Security NS4053 week 8.

Climate Change, Energy, and Security NS4053 week 8.
Sandy: Building Back Stronger, Safer & More Resilient Tim Crowley, Director, Mitigation Division, FEMA Region II December 2012.

Sandy: Building Back Stronger, Safer & More Resilient Tim Crowley, Director, Mitigation Division, FEMA Region II December 2012.
1 Integrated Disaster Risk: From Research to Practice Dr. Jane Rovins, CEM Executive Director IRDR International Programme Office Beijing, China.

1 Integrated Disaster Risk: From Research to Practice Dr. Jane Rovins, CEM Executive Director IRDR International Programme Office Beijing, China.
Incentivising flood resilient behaviour What’s the role of Government? Presented by: Mary Stevens Date: 13 March 2014.

Incentivising flood resilient behaviour What’s the role of Government? Presented by: Mary Stevens Date: 13 March 2014.
International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011 Long term investment planning Developing practical strategic investment.

International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011 Long term investment planning Developing practical strategic investment.
Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative: The Gateway.

Ontario Regional Adaptation Collaborative: The Gateway.
WHY ADAPT? A Critical Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Options for Public Health in Canada Mark Pajot, Masters in Environmental Studies at York U.

WHY ADAPT? A Critical Analysis of Climate Change Adaptation Options for Public Health in Canada Mark Pajot, Masters in Environmental Studies at York U.
ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research:

ASP Summer Colloquium on Uncertainty in Climate Change Research:
11 Steps Leading to Amsterdam and Beyond A much greater emphasis on frameworks for planned adaptation, and also to robust approaches to decision-making.

11 Steps Leading to Amsterdam and Beyond A much greater emphasis on frameworks for planned adaptation, and also to robust approaches to decision-making.
Coastal.... “We seek to expand our activities into the coastal sector through connections to food production and water resources.” Enhance the climate.

Coastal.... “We seek to expand our activities into the coastal sector through connections to food production and water resources.” Enhance the climate.
Bridging the Gaps: Public Health and Radiation Emergency Preparedness Mr. James Kish, Director Technological Hazards National Preparedness Directorate.

Bridging the Gaps: Public Health and Radiation Emergency Preparedness Mr. James Kish, Director Technological Hazards National Preparedness Directorate.
Recommendations to Inform Development of a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Watershed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Simcoe.

Recommendations to Inform Development of a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Watershed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Simcoe.
NOAA Climate Change & Water Sector Webinar Series March 20, 2015.

NOAA Climate Change & Water Sector Webinar Series March 20, 2015.
AMS PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP FORUM 2009 NAS/NRC hazards work – a sampling William H. Hooke AMS Policy Program.

AMS PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP FORUM 2009 NAS/NRC hazards work – a sampling William H. Hooke AMS Policy Program.
Climate Change & the Puget Sound: Building a Legal Framework for Adaptation Yee Huang Policy Analyst Center for Progressive Reform

Climate Change & the Puget Sound: Building a Legal Framework for Adaptation Yee Huang Policy Analyst Center for Progressive Reform
1 Integrated Research on Disaster Risk addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards Dr. Jane Rovins, CEM Executive Director.

1 Integrated Research on Disaster Risk addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards Dr. Jane Rovins, CEM Executive Director.
Risk assessment of natural hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office – an overview Sigrún Karlsdóttir Eiríkur Gíslason Trausti Jónsson Evgenia Ilyinskaya.

Risk assessment of natural hazards at the Icelandic Meteorological Office – an overview Sigrún Karlsdóttir Eiríkur Gíslason Trausti Jónsson Evgenia Ilyinskaya.
Evaluation Methods Workshop ? Definitions: an introduction Evaluation Methods Workshop Sponsored by the Community Based Collaboratives Research Consortium.

Evaluation Methods Workshop ? Definitions: an introduction Evaluation Methods Workshop Sponsored by the Community Based Collaboratives Research Consortium.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google