1. 1 PP 2.3 Development Potentials of LMB Water Resources PP 2.3 Development Potentials of LMB Water Resources

2. 2 Paths to development

3. 3 LMB has many development potentials Irrigation expansion for food crops and exports Hydro power development to export & electrify more rural areas Raise more fishes for food & exports Expand IWT and navigation uses Increase tourism to gain foreign exchange & rural of employment /income Increase industries & get more $ /unit of water ????

4. 4 One approach is to use scenario-based planning Choosing development options that are sustainable and equitable

5. 5 Rivers and Development Find an acceptable balance between development and river condition Land and water development affects the condition of the river and its resources River condition determines how the river and its resources can be used

6. 6 Understanding change What changes are likely / possible? How will these affect the river? What impact will this have on – Environment – Livelihoods – Resource base and productivity Scenarios = “What if...?”

7. 7 What if population increases? Population growth – 55 million in 2000 – 80 million in LMB by 2020 Growth of cities – 20% urban now – 30% urban by 2020

8. 8 What if population increases? Scenario: Domestic water demand doubles Industrial water demand up to 3-4 times Increase access to safe water and sanitation

9. 9 What if irrigation increases? Scenario: Rice production up by 50% by 2020 Diversification of agriculture in LMB – increase in industrial crops for export So…Increased irrigation demand

10. 10 What if irrigation increases? If there is an extra 0.5 million ha of dry season irrigation upstream of Kratie.....

11. 11 Scenarios for upstream development Development in the upper basin will have an impact on the river in the lower basin Technical cooperation needed to assess impacts (positive & negative) from upper basin

12. 12 Pakbeng Luangprabang Xayabuly Paklay Sanakham Pakchom Ban Kum Stung Treng Sambor Don Sahong Ladsuae Gonggouqiao ว Xiaowan Manwan Dochashan Nuozhadu Jinghong Manwan 1995 Dochashan 2003 Jinghong 2008 Xiaowan 2010 2008 Nouzhadu 2015 MYANMAR Hydropower on Mekong Main Stream

13. 13 Using scenarios Determine acceptable trade-offs between development and resource protection – set minimum flow rules – define the amount of potential development available before unacceptable degradation of the river Identify preferred development options

14. 14 Baseline 2000 development level Agriculture Moderate hydropower increase Large Mekong diversions Large irrigation increase High development Large hydropower increase Large Mekong diversions Large irrigation increase Development scenarios Crop areaDam

15. 15 Development Scenarios 1. The Baseline - reference point to compare against other scenarios. Year 2000 level of development & flow regime. 2. Low Development scenario result from a level of development that is nearly assured in the Lower and Upper Mekong Basin. This includes – dams that are currently under construction and/ – water resources developments that are at an advanced stage of technical and financial planning.

16. 16 3. Irrigation scenario – to estimate change in flow & nature of impacts if water resources development was limited to expansion in irrigation & water supply only. Assumed hydropower proceed except those already in Low Development scenario 4. High Development scenario is to estimate the changes in flow and impacts that would result following developments in irrigation, water supply and hydropower Development Scenarios

17. 17 High development scenario See exact combination of it in Handout 2.5

18. 18 Results?

19. 19 Area affected by salinity intrusion Extent of salinity intrusion in Mekong Delta for dry year So what is impact of this change in flows? Extent of saline intrusion in 1998

20. 20 Changes in areas affected by salinity intrusion. AgricultureHigh Development More area affected Less area affected

21. 21 Flooding 1996-2000 19961997199819992000

22. 22 Wet season water level changes High development scenarios

23. 23 Fish feeding opportunity index Index of opportunity to feed on floodplain (Area inundated x duration of inundation) Related to production.

24. 24 Results of FOI for all years YearIndex for baseline year ‘000 days.km 2 % change from baseline for Scenario IrrigationHigh Development 19962,868 -4-6 19972,598 -4-7 19981,607 -8-13 19992,552 -4-7 20003,140 -5

25. 25

26. 26 High development scenarios value added by water ---to country Present total value added by water in the LMB is about US$1.5bn In the High Development scenario this increases by < 50%. Surprisingly low. Value added per capita increases under 10% in from the Baseline -- High Development

27. 27 VN gains little to move from the Baseline to High Development. Still, Viet Nam remains the highest LMB beneficiary country-due to domestic water use ( high population) Cambodia remains the smallest beneficiary as its net increase is the smallest in absolute terms (despite increases in agricultural value) On national bases, the biggest country gain in a move to High Development is Lao PDR ( doubles its value --by water, as a result of hydropower development)

28. 28 Value of water use by sector- base line & high DPMT scenarios Little value added from agriculture despite intensive efforts- from baseline- high D scenario loss in value of fish when move form baseline --to high development scenario Increase value is big in hydro dam– mainly accrue to Laos

29. 29 High development scenarios value added by water by LMB country Present total value added by water in the LMB is about US$1.5bn In the High Development scenario this increases by < 50% Value added per capita increases under 10% in from the Baseline -- High Development who in Laos will gain from this value added? Mainly from hydro dams How will this gain help the poor around Tonle sap region? Will loss in fish be compensated by increase Irrigation?

30. 30 Scenarios to IWRM Strategies Economic valuation / social impacts Trade-offs Negotiation and consultation Total economic value

31. 31 MRC Vision Economically prosperous, socially just and environmentally sound Mekong River Basin Nam Ngum:TKN