1. TELLUS INSTITUTE 1 Modelling of Energy Efficiency Recommendations for the West David Von Hippel David Nichols For the Air Pollution Prevention Forum of the Western Regional Air Partnership AP2 Forum, 19-20 February 2002, Denver, CO

2. TELLUS INSTITUTE 2 Purpose To quantify the potential of achieving energy and demand savings by accelerating the market penetration of available efficiency technologies Demand-side measures reduce energy users’ need for electricity from “grid” through efficiency and on-site CHP

3. TELLUS INSTITUTE 3 Approach by Region Savings, costs for energy-efficiency in WSCR (Interior West), and WSCP (OR/W. ID) built up from estimates for 20+ program types per region Savings and costs for energy efficiency in CNV (CA/Las Vegas) estimated based on parameterization of a national (ACEEE) study

4. TELLUS INSTITUTE 4 Characterizing Measures Capital costs and energy use and other operating costs were gathered Potential efficiency measures were compared with “standard” practices, e.g. installation of equipment typically used Result: “incremental” measure costs and savings, i.e., relative to standard equipment

5. TELLUS INSTITUTE 5 Achievability Assumptions Greater market penetration of DSM implies financial incentives-- incentive costs were assumed and included Also included were expenditures for administering marketing programs Our assumptions are “heuristic” to motivate market penetration targets used Some non-DSM initiatives

6. TELLUS INSTITUTE 6 Residential Measures Included in Assessment

7. TELLUS INSTITUTE 7 “Commercial” Measures Assessed

8. TELLUS INSTITUTE 8 Industrial Measures Assessed

9. TELLUS INSTITUTE 9 Measures Not Assessed Load response and load management programs Distributed generation without CHP Renewable energy technologies Gas energy efficiency measures Transportation sector measures

10. TELLUS INSTITUTE 10 Results, Energy Savings, All Regions

11. TELLUS INSTITUTE 11 Results, Summer Peak Savings, All Regions

12. TELLUS INSTITUTE 12 Results, Costs, All Regions

13. TELLUS INSTITUTE 13 Results, Energy Savings, WSCR

14. TELLUS INSTITUTE 14 Results, Summer Peak Savings, WSCR

15. TELLUS INSTITUTE 15 Results, Costs, WSCR Nominal Annualized Costs

16. TELLUS INSTITUTE 16 Measure Cost Curve, WSCR

17. TELLUS INSTITUTE 17 End-Use Emissions, WSCR (preliminary)

18. TELLUS INSTITUTE 18 Energy Savings, WSCP

19. TELLUS INSTITUTE 19 Summer Peak Savings, WSCP

20. TELLUS INSTITUTE 20 Results, Costs, WSCP Nominal Annualized Costs

21. TELLUS INSTITUTE 21 Measure Cost Curve, WSCP

22. TELLUS INSTITUTE 22 End-Use Emissions, WSCP (preliminary)

23. TELLUS INSTITUTE 23 Results, Energy Savings, CNV

24. TELLUS INSTITUTE 24 Results, Summer Peak Savings, CNV

25. TELLUS INSTITUTE 25 Results, Costs, CNV

26. TELLUS INSTITUTE 26 End-Use Emissions, CNV (preliminary)

27. TELLUS INSTITUTE 27 Next Steps Review results with AP2F comments Contribute documentation to ICF Consulting report to AP2F Level of detail needed for energy- efficiency write-up Post-study: Work on implementation approaches

28. TELLUS INSTITUTE 28 Potential Follow-on? Prepare by-measure estimate for CNV Similar to WSCR/WSCP analyses--but who would be the users/funders?) Break down analysis by state? Model energy efficiency as blocks of different sizes/costs within IPM? Transfer energy-efficiency estimation capabilities to states?