1. 1 Introduction to Complex SystemsIntroduction to Complex Systems: How to think like nature Russ Abbott Sr. Engr. Spec. Rotn to CCAE 310-336-1398 Russ.Abbott@Aero.org  1998-2007. The Aerospace Corporation. All Rights Reserved. A bit presumptuous? Besides, does nature really think?

2. 2 Complex systems: How to think like nature Unintended consequences.

3. 3 A fable Once upon a time, a state in India had too many snakes. To solve this problem the government instituted an incentive- based program to encourage its citizens to kill snakes. It created the No Snake Left Alive program. –Anyone who brought a dead snake into a field office of the Dead Snake Control Authority (DSCA) would be paid a generous Dead Snake Bounty (DSB). A year later the DSB budget was exhausted. DSCA had paid for a significant number of dead snakes. But there was no noticeable reduction in the number of snakes plaguing the good citizens of the state. What went wrong?

4. 4 The DSCA mechanism Catch and submit a dead snake. DSCA Receive money. Dead snake verifier Receive dead snake certificate. Submit certificate to DSCA. What would you do if such a mechanism were available in your world? Start a snake farm.

5. 5 Moral: unintended consequences The preceding is an example of what is sometimes called an unintended consequence. It represents an entire category of (unintended and unexpected) phenomena in which –a mechanism is installed in an environment, but then –the mechanism is used/exploited in unanticipated ways. Once a mechanism is installed in the environment, it will be used for whatever purposes users can think to make of it … –which may not be that for which it was originally intended. The first lesson of complex systems thinking is that one must always be aware of the relationship between systems and their environments. That’s how nature works.

6. 6 Energy (and its proxy money) is fundamental. Any mechanism that provides access to energy/money/resources is a potential target of unintended consequences. A niche: Energy (and its proxy money) is fundamental. Any mechanism that provides access to energy/money/resources is a potential target of unintended consequences. A niche: Follow the energy/money Example: power is supplied to computer USB ports –Presumably to provide power for USB devices. –The wifi bridge uses the Internet Port for data. –But it gets its power from the USB port. Energy (and its proxy money) is fundamental. Any mechanism that provides access to energy/money/resources is a potential target of unintended consequences. A niche: a way of extracting energy/money/ resources from an environment Energy (and its proxy money) is fundamental. Any mechanism that provides access to energy/money/resources is a potential target of unintended consequences. A niche: a way of extracting energy/money/ resources from an environment