1. Crisis-Era Protectionism: Evidence from the Global Trade Alert Prepared for the OECD Trade Committee Prof. Simon J. Evenett www.globaltradealert.org

2. The value-added of independent monitoring in global downturns 1.Sole focus on monitoring; no dilution of effort. 2.Scope not artificially limited by existing international accords. 3.Avoids pitfalls of formal notification and verification systems. 4.Accelerated reporting cycles. 5.Avoid tendency to prematurely declare victory: there were three false endings to the Great Depression. Users: In less than 5 months 3,500 users have returned to the site 9 or more times. 2

3. The latest results from the GTA 520 completed investigations of announced state measures: 355 implemented, 165 pending. Of the implemented measures, 252 discriminate against foreign commercial interests. –Only 47 of the discriminatory measures are trade remedies. Of the pending measures, if implemented, 150 will almost certainly involve discrimination. –104 of these measures are trade remedies. The GTA team is currently investigating another 352 state measures. 3

4. The form of discrimination is changing Already implementedPending

5. How many times has your country’s interests been harmed?

6. Own discrimination: tariff lines affected

7. Own discrimination: trading partners harmed

8. Implications for policymaking Just because protectionism hasn't turned out as badly as many feared it might at the beginning of 2009 doesn't mean it isn't a problem or that it cannot become one, especially as unemployment rises sharply in the next 12 months. Monitoring and peer pressure should continue; the world economy is not out of trouble yet, and in today's 24-hour media cycles protectionist spirals can get out of control very quickly. 8

9. Knowledge gaps The varied mix of contemporary protectionism means its can't be neatly summarised using in terms of trade reductions and tariff equivalent increases. 1.Investment and trade impact of financial assistance offered to the non-financial sector will stall the process of rationalisation, depressing prices. 2.Buy national programmes need much more attention. 3.Various export promotion schemes need examination.