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Published byNaomi Farmer Modified over 9 years ago
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Overconfidence Together with hindsight bias, can lead to overestimate our intuition “There is not reason for anyone to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Company, 1977
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Three main components Curious eagerness Skeptically scrutinize competing ideas Open-minded humility before nature
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“Smart thinking” Four elements Examines assumptions Discerns hidden values Evaluates evidence Assesses conclusions
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Theory “mere hunch” Hypotheses Can be confirmed or refuted Operational Definition Replication (repeat)
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an observation technique in which one person is studied in depth in the hope of revealing universal principles. Problem Study could be atypical
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Looks at many cases at once Word effects
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Population all the cases in a group being studied, from which samples may be drawn. Note: Except for national studies, this does NOT refer to a country’s whole population.
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Random Sampling a sample that fairly represents a population because each member has an equal chance of inclusion.
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Describes behavior Does not explain behavior Stranger Paper
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Positive Correlations - is when 2 scores rise or fall together Negative Correlations - Is when 2 sets of scores relate inversely – one set goes up and the other goes down
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Comes from our need to make sense out of the world Coin flip Poker hand
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Randomly Assigning ◦ Control Group ◦ Experimental Group Double-blind Procedure Placebo Affect
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Independent The experimental factor that is manipulated; the variable whose effect is being studied. Dependent The variable that may change in response to manipulations of the independent variable.
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Mode ◦ occurs the most Mean ◦ arithmetic average Median ◦ middle score
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Normal Curve (bell shaped)
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Statistical Significance The averages are reliable The differences between averages is relatively large Does imply the importance of the results
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