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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources:

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Presentation on theme: "(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources:"— Presentation transcript:

1 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research Primary Sources: IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans

2 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) New Scenarios “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  2300 “long-term” scenarios  2100 and ultimately  2300 - climate targets for avoiding risks - long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation Global scenarios for two time periods “near-term” scenarios  2035 “near-term” scenarios  2035 - potential for “prediction” - directly linked to policy planning

3 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Approaches to Scenario Development Previous (e.g., SRES)Planned (e.g., RCP)

4 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) Expected Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5 > 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 > 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100 rising risingRCP6 ~ 6 W/m 2 in 2100 ~ 6 W/m 2 in 2100 stabilization stabilizationRCP4.5 4.5 W/m 2 in 2100 4.5 W/m 2 in 2100 stabilization stabilizationRCP3-PD peak 3 W/m 2 before 2100 peak 3 W/m 2 before 2100 decline after peak decline after peak

5 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)

6 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

7 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

8 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

9 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

10 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

11 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

12 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models) resolutiondecadallong-termatmos.-only atmosphere horiz. (deg)1.761.970.59 levels2534 ocean horiz. (deg)0.930.95NA levels3839NA (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

13 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

14 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

15 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

16 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) (K.E. Taylor, 2009)

17 (Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5) END Future Directions in Globally Coordinated Climate Change Research

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