1. Forecasting Land Use Change at European and at Urban Level: SASI and PROPOLIS EEA Expert Meeting on Land Use Accounting Copenhagen, 16 March 2005 Spiekermann & Wegener Urban and Regional Research Dortmund, Germany Klaus Spiekermann

2. The SASI Model

3. SASI Model

7. Daily accessibility: people accessible within 5 hours by roadrail

8. Daily accessibility: absolute change 1999-2010 rail TEN/TINA

10. B1 Priority Projects

11. B2 all TEN-T Projects

12. The PROPOLIS Modelling System

13. PROPOLIS analytical framework

15. MEPLANBilbao Helsinki Naples Vicenza TRANUSBrussels Inverness IRPUDDortmund Land-use transport models

16. Mikrosimulation

21. Scenario “Compact City“

22. Scenario “Polycentric Development“

23. Scenario ‘Urban Growth Boundary’

25. PROPOLIS analytical framework

26. Bilbao

27. Brussels

28. Dortmund

29. Helsinki

30. Inverness

31. Naples

32. Vicenza

33. PROPOLIS analytical framework

34. - Raster Module - Economic Indicator Module - Justice Indicator Module - Other Sustainability Indicator Module - Background Variables Module Sustainability indicator tools

35. Raster Module: Structure

36. Spatial Disaggregation: Methodology (1) Allocation of zonal data to raster cells

37. Spatial Disaggregation: Methodology (2) Spatial disaggregation of network data

38. Land Use in the Dortmund Region

39. Spatial Disaggregation of Population

40. Spatial Disaggregation of Population - 3d

41. Population in Raster Cells and Transport Network

42. Spatial Disaggregation of Network Data

43. Emission (NO 2 )

44. Exposure to Air Pollution

45. Exposure to Traffic Noise

46. Open Space

47. Quality of Open Space I

48. Quality of Open Space II

49. Fragmentation of Open Space

50. Accessibility to Open Space

51. Conclusions

52. Conclusions: Forecast Models and Land Use Accounts I European Models (like SASI): Purpose: Investigate future pressure on environment in Europe European-wide forecast of transport, population, GDP, employment etc. Impacts of policy scenarios on regions –development pressure from “urban functions“ –localisation of such demand (-> land use accounting) Impacts of policy scenarios for transport corridors –environmental damage from transport (noise, air quality, fragmentation) –land use accounts with additional layer (environmental quality) -> “Screening“ of policy options“

53. Conclusions: Forecast Models and Land Use Accounts II Urban Models (like PROPOLIS Modelling System): Purpose: Detailled test cases for future pressure on environment in urban areas Forecast of zonal development of population, employment etc Forecast of transport load on links. Linking with Corine Land Cover and land use accounts –localisation of development –future accounts of land cover changes: –environmental damage from transport (noise, air quality, fragmentation) –land use accounts with additional layer (environmental quality) -> Evaluation of policy options and environmental impacts in different urban settings“