1. Climate Prediction Center Monitoring Products Dr. Gerald Bell Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Camp Springs, MD www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

2. Outline 1.Climate monitoring versus assessment 2.Overview of CPC climate monitoring products 3.Main monitoring products 1.Global Temperature and Precipitation 2.Drought and Soil Moisture 3.ENSO 4.Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) 5.Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricanes 6.Teleconnections 4. Summary

3. Climate Monitoring versus Assessment MonitoringMonitoring Examination of daily, monthly, seasonal, etc. analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variabilityExamination of daily, monthly, seasonal, etc. analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variability Helps to identify and understand current and past short-term climate anomaliesHelps to identify and understand current and past short-term climate anomalies Critical for understanding and predictionsCritical for understanding and predictions AssessmentAssessment Analysis of the current or past conditions designed to aid our understanding of a particular climate phenomenon or event.Analysis of the current or past conditions designed to aid our understanding of a particular climate phenomenon or event. Examples: ENSO Assessments, special climate assessments, seasonal climate asssessments.Examples: ENSO Assessments, special climate assessments, seasonal climate asssessments. Critical for understanding and predictionsCritical for understanding and predictions

4. CPC home Page: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

5. Index Expert Assessments Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Weather and Climate Hazards ENSO, Drought Special Climate Summaries Annual Climate Assessments Seasonal Climate Monitoring Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

6. Seasonal Climate Monitoring Seasonal Climate Summaries Index Expert Assessments Seasonal Assessment, SST, Circulation in Tropics and Extratropics, Precipitation, Temperature, Animations Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

7. Monitoring and DataIndex Other items on page: Drought Soil Moisture Snow Cover Degree Days Africa Maps and Data Pacific Islands data Forecast Performance Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

8. Daily Temperature Analysis Click Analyses in (F) and (C) Analyses include Mean Temps, Max and Min Temps Daily, 5-day, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day Data Stations: River Forecast Centers ~ 2500/per day Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day Grid resolution: 0.5 X 0.5 degree Surface Temperature Monitoring

9. 30-day Means and Anomalies

10. Monitoring and Data Temperature Time Series Click 365-day Temperature Time Series Surface Temperature Monitoring

11. Daily Precipitation Analysis Click Precipitation Monitoring

12. Daily Precipitation Analysis Click United States Gridded Precipitation Analyses include Daily, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day, 180 day, 365-day averages, month-to-date totals. Download gridded data Data Stations: River Forecast Centers ~ 5000/per day Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day Minimum of 500 stations required Grid resolution: 0.25 X 0.25 degree Quality Control: Duplicate Station Check Data check (buddy check, outliers NEXRAD check for spurious zeros Precipitation Monitoring

13. Daily Precipitation Analysis Example of 180-day Precipitation Analysis

14. Daily Precipitation Analysis Precipitation Station Coverage

15. Click on station to get Precipitation time series Monitoring and Data Precipitation Time Series Click Global Precipitation Time Series’ Precipitation Monitoring

16. Example of 90-day Precipitation Time Series Precipitation Monitoring

17. Products U.S. Climate & Data Maps Monitoring & Data Drought Drought monitoring

18. Drought Monitoring Palmer Drought Index

19. Index Soil Moisture Monitoring & Data Soil Moisture Analysis Outlook Maps Evaporation Runoff Recent Anomalies Recent Changes Climatology Drought Indicators Soil Moisture

20. Example of Soil Moisture Anomalies

21. Climate Highlights Drought Assessment Home U.S. Drought Assessment Information Used to Make Drought Outlook Seasonal Outlooks Drought data Drought Indicator Blends Soil Moisture Data Precip. and Temp.

22. Climate & Weather El Niño /La Nina Home Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability MJO Current Conditions—Weekly Update (.ppt) Animations Weekly and Monthly Analyses Diagnostics Discussion Tutorial

23. Powerpoint Presentations of latest ENSO and MJO conditions ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation MJO MJO Weekly Update El Niño /La Nina Weekly ENSO Update Weekly MJO Update Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

24. Weekly SST Anomalies Time Series of Weekly SST Anomalies for the 4 Niño Regions Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

25. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Measures Anomalous Tropical Convection Wetter-than-average conditions (blue shading) Drier-than-average conditions (orange/red shading) Longitude Time Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

26. Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation. Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation. Longitude Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO) 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies show MJO the best Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

27. Subsurface Temperature Departures in Equatorial Pacific Ocean model creates gridded sub-surface temperature using buoy data, sounding data from TOGA TAO array, etc. EL Niño Warming along Thermocline, Combined with down-welling phase of Kelvin Wave triggered by MJO Anomalous warmth in East due to Kelvin Wave. 180 120W Mid-Feb Early Mar Mid-Mar Early Apr Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

28. Monitoring North Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane Potential Monitoring and DataIndexMonitoring Atlantic Hurricane Potential Monitoring East. Pac. Hurricane Potential

29. Enhanced Tropical Easterly Jet (200-mb) Favorable African Easterly Jet Higher Pressure in Upper Atmosphere Weaker Easterly Trade Winds (Dark Blue arrow) Warmer SSTs Lower Vertical Wind Shear and Surface Pressure (Red Area) Upper-level Easterlies Expand Westward (Green arrows) Analyses are related to Monitoring key Circulation features associated with Hurricane formation Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

30. Weekly SST Departures Very warm SSTs persist in Tropical Atlantic Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

31. 700-hPa: African Easterly Jet (AEJ) AEJ already showing increased cyclonic shear and weaker easterly trades. Classic signal for active Hurricane season Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

32. Area-averaged 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies Show strength of subtropical ridge across the North Atlantic Orange shows enhanced subtropical ridge. Strong intra-seasonal variability due to MJO is seen. Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

33. Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Monitoring and DataIndex Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Climate and WeatherTeleconnections Monthly and Daily analyses Monthly: Daily: Monthly: Patterns, Calculation procedure, Description of 10 leading teleconnection patterns Description of 10 leading teleconnection patterns Time Series Time Series Associated temp and precipitation departures Associated temp and precipitation departures Daily: Observed time series of PNA, NAO, AO. MRF and ensemble forecasts MRF and ensemble forecasts

34. DailyMonthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Time Series Based on standardized 500-hPa height anomalies Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

35. MRF Model Forecasts of NAO Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

36. Ensemble Model Forecasts of NAO Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

37. Summary Atlantic SST Anomalies 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies