1. 2016 Fire Season Considerations and Outlook SWCC Predictive Services Updated February 17, 2016

2. Seasonal Fire Potential Main Factors 1. Drought 2. Fine Fuels Condition 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation 4. Spring & early Summer Weather Patterns 5. Monsoon Big Picture Fuels Complex Conditions Fine Fuels Component Season Setup Fire Ignition & Spread Season End

3. Fire Season 2016: Drought Long-term drought has backed off significantly in the past 6-12 months from “Moderate to Severe” to primarily just Abnormally Dry along/west of the divide. Long-term drought has backed off significantly in the past 6-12 months from “Moderate to Severe” to primarily just Abnormally Dry along/west of the divide. Drought outlook calls for removal of drought conditions by mid spring! Drought outlook calls for removal of drought conditions by mid spring! 2016 fire season setting up to occur without significant drought conditions in place…a rarity over the past 15 years. 2016 fire season setting up to occur without significant drought conditions in place…a rarity over the past 15 years. Least drought impact since the onset of the 2010 fire season. Least drought impact since the onset of the 2010 fire season.

4. Fire Season 2016: Fine Fuels Fine fuels loading and continuity often increase under the same conditions that mitigate drought. Fine fuels loading and continuity often increase under the same conditions that mitigate drought. Images here depict the Departure from Average of fine fuels conditions in early FEB since 2014. This typically depicts fine fuel loading, relative to normal. Images here depict the Departure from Average of fine fuels conditions in early FEB since 2014. This typically depicts fine fuel loading, relative to normal. Wetter conditions over the past several years have led to an Above Normal amount of fine fuels carrying over into the winter Wetter conditions over the past several years have led to an Above Normal amount of fine fuels carrying over into the winter 2016 features a bumper crop of carryover fine fuels. Snow compaction, grazing impacts, and spring green-up are additional factors to be considered. 2016 features a bumper crop of carryover fine fuels. Snow compaction, grazing impacts, and spring green-up are additional factors to be considered. Early FEB - 2014 Early FEB - 2015 Early FEB - 2016

5. Fine Fuels Growth – June 2015 Salt Point_Navajo_June18_2015

6. Fire Season 2016: Winter (NOV ’15 – JAN ‘16) Temperature & Precipitation Overall cool to cold with variable precipitation, but including a few major winter storms with widespread impacts Overall cool to cold with variable precipitation, but including a few major winter storms with widespread impacts Snowpack uniformly above normal despite periodic precipitation…though snowpack is down a bit from JAN. Snowpack uniformly above normal despite periodic precipitation…though snowpack is down a bit from JAN. TEMP PRECIP

7. Fire Season 2016: FEB Temperature & Precipitation Indicators still showing a somewhat moist tilt, though temperatures trending more towards normal for the month as a whole. Indicators still showing a somewhat moist tilt, though temperatures trending more towards normal for the month as a whole. Indicative of a ‘feast or famine’ pattern where individual storms can impact monthly climate anomalies! Indicative of a ‘feast or famine’ pattern where individual storms can impact monthly climate anomalies! TEMP - FEB 2016 PRECIP PRECIP - FEB 2016 TEMP – Late FEB 2016 PRECIP – Late FEB 2016

8. Fire Season 2016: Winter - Feast or Famine? Feast with troughs… Feast with troughs… Famine with ridges… Famine with ridges… L L H H H Late DEC 2015 Mid FEB 2016

9. Fire Season 2016: MAR – MAY Temp & Precip Anomalies Return to more active trough pattern expected to being cooler spring temperatures, but a mixed precipitation signal (wetter west, drier east). Return to more active trough pattern expected to being cooler spring temperatures, but a mixed precipitation signal (wetter west, drier east). Much will depend on El Niño demise, and impacts on the storm track. Much will depend on El Niño demise, and impacts on the storm track. High variability and uncertainty. High variability and uncertainty. TEMP PRECIP

10. Jet stream/storm track variations to drive both eventual climate anomalies and tendency for critical fire weather events Jet stream/storm track variations to drive both eventual climate anomalies and tendency for critical fire weather events Certainly some windy/dry and some lightning, but inconsistent in both time and space. (winds more likely south & east) Certainly some windy/dry and some lightning, but inconsistent in both time and space. (winds more likely south & east) H L L L Fire Season 2016: Spring & Early Summer Weather Pattern – Jet Stream(s) TEMP PRECIP L

11. Fire Season 2016: Monsoon? No clear signal at this time. A lot will depend on what occurs with El Niño and both if and how long/strongly it lingers through spring No clear signal at this time. A lot will depend on what occurs with El Niño and both if and how long/strongly it lingers through spring JULY-SEPT 2016 – Temp & Rainfall Relative to Average TEMP – JUL>SEP 2016 PRECIP – JUL>SEP 2016 TEMP – JUL>SEP 2016 PRECIP – JUL>SEP 2016

12. Fire Season 2016: Monsoon For Reference: Median dates for end of ‘large fire’ season. For Reference: Median dates for end of ‘large fire’ season. Median Dates for “End of Large Fire Season”

13. 2016 Fire Season Factors Summary 1. 1. Drought – Mitigated! More typical “top down” drying to be expected, with heavier fuels regimes not coming into play until later in the season. 2. 2. Fine Fuels Condition – Bumper crop year, but there has been some snow compaction and other disturbances. 3. 3. Seasonal Temperature & Precipitation – Cooler and generally more moist overall trend on average for winter>spring, but with high variability. Snowpack should be near normal by APR 1. 4. 4. Spring & Early Summer Weather Pattern – Active jet stream likely to intrude into or near the area from the NW, keeping high week to week variability with best chances for sustained windy and dry conditions east and south. Otherwise, minimal ‘alignment’ of sustained critical fire weather conditions. 5. 5. Monsoon – No clear signal at this time. Day to day/week to week weather variability and the fine fuels bumper crop will most likely drive the fire season

14. END SWCC Predictive Services Next Update: Mid March 2016 Contact: SWCC Predictive Services 505-842-3473 Consult the Outlooks Page (Below) for Updated Information Through Fire Season: http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/predictive/outlooks/outlooks.htm