1. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting

2.  Discussion Topics:  2013 Fire Season (review)  Winter and Spring 2013-2014  What’s new for 2014  Seasonal Outlook for the 2014 Fire Season

3. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  2013 Fire Season Analysis and Verification:  The 2013 fire season saw a decrease in overall fire activity.  There were bouts of monsoon moisture that produced available ignition due to the associated lightning.  Some of the drought stressed vegetation areas ignited quickly with the lightning even with the moisture  Fires then spread quickly with wind and topography as a driving force.

4. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Wildfire Acreage Burned per Year:

5. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Reasons for the reduced fire acreage during the 2013 fire season:  Many areas especially in the west received above average moisture in August.(exception California)  Air, Fuel and Soil moisture increased thereby keeping fire spread within tolerance limiting large fire growth.  Over water trajectory (i.e Pacific Ocean) was over the northwest.

6. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Reasons continued:  The overwater trajectory coupled with the moist monsoon influx produced an adequate amount of moisture to slow the fire season.  This effect mainly occurred in August and September.

7. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  June percent of average precipitation remained very dry over the SW and southern California  Pac. NW was near to above average.

8. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Percent of average precipitation for July  Still below average along the west coast and into eastern Oregon and Washington.  Great Basin above average.  Height of fire ignition season.

9. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  In August we are now seeing the combination of the monsoon moisture and Pacific moisture pushing percent of average precipitation above average.  This weather pattern would slow the fire season in some areas.

10. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  By September the % of average Precipitation was above average over nearly all areas of the west.  Parts of the Mid- west and East still were in a drier than average state.  Fire season was essentially over in the west.

11. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  October abruptly turned dry again and has remained dry through January and into February.

12. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  New things to consider for 2014 Fire Weather Season.  The 1981-2010 Climate Averages are NCDC's latest three-decade averages for climatological variables.  These variables include temperature and precipitation data.  This new product replaces the 1971-2000 Climate averages product, which remains available as historical data.1971-2000 Climate averages

13. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting Winter 2013 and early Spring 2014. Snowpack and Precipitation data.

14. 2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Drought Monitor Comparison Nov - 2013Feb - 2014

15. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  This is the January SWE for the western US.  Extremely low SWE over the Cascades and much of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.  Previous graphics showed California in a severe to extreme drought.  Northern Rockies are 70-80% of average.

16. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  West Wide SWE from SNOTEL sites around the western States.  Some increase in SWE mid Jan-Feb is expected.  This latest map shows improvement in the Pacific NW in February.

17. 2014 NWAS Annual Meeting  12 Month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)  Shows : deficit/abundance of Precipitation.  Also shows the drought trends.  No. California is a bulls eye fore extreme drought.

18. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  6 month SPI will show if there is improvement in the drought areas.  All of west coast and portions of the inter-mountain west are in a water deficit.

19. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  This is the 1 month SPI for the month of January.  We still see the very pronounced drought continuing over California and southwest Oregon.

20. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the week of February 15.  Still seeing Severe to Extreme drought for California and western Nevada.  Drought improved with the latest precipitation late January and February over OR, WA, and ID.

21. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for February 18 still continues the Extreme to Exceptional Drought over California and parts of the South- west.

22. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  No surprises here!  Drought persists over California, Southwest and intensifies over OR, NV, and southern Idaho.  The rest of the U.S is showing improvement.

23. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting 2014 ENSO  A Neutral ENSO continues to persist over the tropical eastern Pacific.  Has been in this state for the past 15 months.  It does look like a warming phase is beginning which would mean we are moving into an El Nino stage.

24. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Probabilistic ENSO Forecast.  Shows Neutral phase through JJA  Then shifts to a higher probability of El Nino phase by JAS.

25. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST USING SEASONAL LONG LEAD FORECAST (SLLO) CHARTS. INTERPRETATION BY GARY BENNETT - METEOROLOGIST

26. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  This is the March temperature SLLO.  Above (A) average temperatures to continue over the SW.  Equal Chances (EC) over the rest of the NW, mid west and East.  Below (B) average temperature anomaly over the Great Lakes Region.

27. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Precipitation SLLO for March.  Below (B) average anomaly over SoCal, Arizona, and western NM.  Above (A) average for eastern Oregon, southern Idaho, northern Nevada and northern Utah.  Rest of the U.S. is Equal Chances (EC).

28. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  AMJ SLLO Temperature graphic.  Above (A) average anomaly has now spread north and east across the U.S.  Northern Great Lakes is still in the Below (B) category.  Rest of the U.S. is EC.  Alaska is also Above (A) average.

29. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  MJJ Temperature graphic.  The Above (A) average anomaly is still very present over much of the west, SW, and east.  Equal Chances (EC) continues over the northern tier states.  Above (A) average remains over Alaska.

30. 2014 NWSA Annual Summary  MJJ Precipitation graphic.  Below (B) average over the northwest coastal area, and the Gulf Coast area.  Rest of the U.S. is Equal Chances (EC) including Alaska.

31. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JJA Temperature Graphic.  The Above (A) average temperature anomaly has strengthened across the U.S. and Alaska.  Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Regions remain (EC).

32. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JJA Precipitation Chart.  Equal Chances (EC) over all parts of the U. S and Alaska.

33. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JAS Temperature SLLO.  Not a lot of change as the temperature anomaly is strong over all areas of the U.S. except the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Alaska remains Above (A) average.

34. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JAS Precipitation SLLO.  No changes as model has Equal Chances (EC) over all of the U.S. and Alaska.

35. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  ASO Temperature SLLO.  Still seeing Above (A) average temperature anomaly over the West, Intermountain West, and Northeast.  Equal Chances (EC) over the mid West and East Central coast.  Alaska is still above (A) but shrinking.

36. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Again no changes to the Precipitation SLLO for ASO.  All areas are Equal Chances (EC).

37. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  SON Temperature SLLO.  Again we see the Above (A) average anomaly for Temperature spread out across the U.S.  Some weakening and an eastward shift with the strongest anomaly over the 4 corners area.  Northeast is still Above (A) average.

38. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  SON Precipitation SLLO.  Again NO Changes as all areas are Equal Chances (EC).

39. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  OND Temperature SLLO.  The Above (A) average SLLO for Temperature has moved east into the Gulf States, Mid West and Northeast.  West is Equal Chances (EC)

40. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  OND Precipitation SLLO.  Again the precipitation SLLO is showing Equal Chances (EC).  We are beginning to change over to winter time climatology.

41. 2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Are there any Questions or Comments?