1. ShakeOut M 7.8 Earthquake on the San Andreas Fault: Initial Damage Assessment & Impacts on Critical Lifeline Infrastructure Ken Hudnut (USGS) November 12–16, 2008 13 November 2008Situation Report Los Alamitos, California

2. USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist Dale Cox, Project Manager Sue Perry, Staff Scientist Key Partnerships and a Large Collaboration 10 Section Leaders Earth and Computer Science Ken Hudnut, USGS - also: Rob Graves (URS) & Brad Aagaard (USGS) Dan Ponti, USGS Mike Reichle, CGS Engineering Keith Porter, EERI Hope Seligson, MMI Engineering Public Health Kim Shoaf, UCLA Disaster Sociology Dennis Mileti, Seismic Safety Commission Jim Goltz, Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Disaster Economics Anne Wein, USGS Richard Bernknopf, USGS More than 300 Panelists, Experts, Special Studies Download reports at www.usgs.gov/shakeout ShakeOut Scenario Development

3. Disaster vs. Catastrophe How will the local & national economy handle this earthquake? What makes a Katrina catastrophe? Economic Activity/ Wealth Time

5. Palm Springs Los Angeles Bakersfield Compare with 1994 Northridge earthquake: 50x smaller Magnitude 6.7 57 deaths $40 billion Calculate Wave Propagation Compare with 2008 Chino Hills earthquake: 5000x smaller! Magnitude 5.4 0 deaths Minimal damage

6. Fault Rupture - Large Offsets examples: 9 m ~2-3 m ~3 m Bombay Beach Salton Sea Lake Hughes Wairarapa fault, New Zealand - M 8.2 1855 earthquake 18.7 meter (~61 feet) right-lateral offset Landers, California M 7.3 - 1992 earthquake ~1 meter (3 feet) offset ~4 m

8. Fault Surface Rupture

9. Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault crossings

10. Cajon Pass lifelines

11. Courtesy of Rob Graves (SCEC-URS) and Brad Aagaard, USGS

13. Devers substation

14. Situation Report Estimated damage (shaking, fire & long-term economic) $213 B Ten buildings collapsed; of these, 5 are high-rise; dozens red-tagged Fatalities 1,800; number requiring emergency room care 53,000 Freeways disrupted at I-10 (Indio) and I-15 (Cajon Pass); traffic snarled Critical lifelines severed at Cajon Pass and San Gorgonio Pass Fires have started to get out of control in several areas Water distribution system shattered; aftershocks adding to damage

15. Mw 7.8 Mexico City Earthquake, 1985 Sources: Bob Reitherman, CUREE Mehmet Celebi, USGS

16. Courtesy of Rob Graves (SCEC-URS) and Brad Aagaard, USGS

19. www.usgs.gov/shakeout hudnut@usgs.gov