1. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Climate Change: Educating for informed decision-making Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Initiative Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Building Bridges Iowa Community College Forum Ames Iowa 16 October 2008

2. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Outline  Sharing educational resources: the example of climate change  Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide  Impacts of changes in greenhouse gases  Current and future trends in global climate  Climate change for the US Midwest  Changes in global food production Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

3. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

4. CO 2, CH 4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Natural cycles Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

5. IPCC Third Assessment Report

6. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2008 384 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

7. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS 2050 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

8. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

9. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ? Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

10. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

11. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

13. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

14. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

15. Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m 2 in 2018

21. Meehl, G.A.,et al, 2007: Global Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Chapter 10, p. 771 Arctic Sea-Ice Extent Observed and Projected by Global Climate Models 2005 2007 2008

23. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

24. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

25. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

26. Natural cycles

27. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

28. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural Highly Likely Not Natural

29. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

30. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving

31. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Energy intensive Energy conserving Reduced Consumption

32. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

33. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS

35. Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

36. Precipitation minus Evaporation for Western US (25N-40N, 95W-125 W) R. Seager, et al.,2007. Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, Vol. 316. no. 5828, pp. 1181 - 1184

37. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature  Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More freeze-thaw cycles (high)  Increased temperature variability (high) *Estimated from IPCC reports Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

38. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS  More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)  Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier summers) (high)  More water-logging of soils (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high) –More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) –Higher episodic streamflow (medium) –Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)  Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) *Estimated from IPCC reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

39. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS  Reduced wind speeds (high)  Reduced solar radiation (medium)  Increased tropospheric ozone (high)  Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)  Phenological stages are shortened high)  Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)  Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)  Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other

40. Des Moines Airport Data

45. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

46. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

47. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

48. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Des Moines Airport Data

49. Cedar Rapids Data

50. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

51. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

52. Projected changes in precipitation between 1980-1999 and 2080-2099 for an energy-conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

53. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood 2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail 7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind 5.0 Other 1.1 Total 100.0 Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa* *Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)

54. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa* FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood 1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat 0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease 1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other 1.1 Total 100.0 *Milliman, Inc., based on 1995-2006 data from the Risk Management Agency Website (http://www.rma.usda.gov/)

55. US Corn Yields (Bushels/Acre)

57. Tostle, Ronald, 2008: Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices WRS-0801 May 2008. USDA/ERS

59. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS Summary  Global temperature change of the last 30 years cannot be explained on the basis of natural processes alone. Only when human-caused effects are considered can we explain recent temperature trends  Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have little effect on global warming until the latter half of the 21st century  Adaptation strategies should be developed for the next 50 years  Some, but not all, climate changes consistent with model projections of future climate already are being observed  There is an urgent need to assess changes in global food production due to climate change

60. PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS For More Information  For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse  Contact me directly: gstakle@iastate.edu  Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/  North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/  For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/ Or just Google Eugene Takle