1. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency PRELUDE European Environment Agency

2. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency The PRELUDE project Project objectives:  To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment – from 2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland – in a set of alternative scenarios  To provide a context against which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.

3. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency A Prelude to Europe’s Future 5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape  Europe of Contrast – Great Escape  Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society  Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks  Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U  Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis

4. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Scenario development Quant. Scen. Qual. Scen Stakeholders EEA Data & Modelling Group(s) European Land Use Change Scenarios The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors. The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity … Experts ☺ Floods ☺ Biodiv. … ‘Story-and-Simulation‘

5. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Stakeholder panel Policy EU-level authorities National-level authorities International Organisation Research / Science Natural Sciences Social Sciences Information Technology Interest Groups Business/Industry Agriculture/Forestry NGOs: Nature, Culture, … Independents

6. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Scenario Development

7. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Land use type A Land use type B Land use type C Current Situation Land use change scenarios Where?... FutureWhat Changes?... Environmental impacts?...

8. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Driver assumptions 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Subsidiarity Policy Intervention Settlement Conc. Population growth Youthfulness Immigration Internal Migr. Health Social Equity Quality of Life Environmental Concern Economic Growth International Trade Daily Mobility Food Self Sufficiency Technological Growth Agricultural Intensity Climate Change Renewable Energy Human Behaviour Environmental concern Solidarity & equity Governance & intervention Technology & Innovation Agricultural optimisation Mid Low High 20 drivers identified by stakeholders Aggregated ’radar chart’

9. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency From stories to model input GDP growth per capita per year (input values) 2.8%2.5%1.5%3.5%2.8%2.5% Input values and spatial allocation rules are derived from stakeholder assumptions: Example: Economic growth Qualitative values (attributed by stakeholders) 653965 GECN ES LS BC Now

10. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Driver assumptions Mid Low High Environmental concern Solidarity & equity Governance & intervention Technology & Innovation Agricultural optimisation Great Escape Lettuce Surprise U Clustered Networks Evolved Society Big Crisis

11. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Land use modelling Louvain-la-neuve model, Pelcom Data, 2005-2035 EU 25 + Norway/Switzerland 6 land use classes were modelled: -urban areas - cropland -grassland -biofuels -forest -surplus (abandoned) European analysis The demand for each land use is derived for each scenario at country- or NUTS-2-level. Land use is then allocated to a 10 minute latitude/longitude grid. ]

12. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency urban dense urban diffuse cropland rural rural mosaic grassland rural natural mosaic forest other natural abandoned rural land 2005

13. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency urban dense urban diffuse cropland rural rural mosaic grassland rural natural mosaic forest other natural abandoned rural land

14. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency urban dense urban diffuse cropland rural rural mosaic grassland rural natural mosaic forest other natural abandoned rural land

15. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency urban dense urban diffuse cropland rural rural mosaic grassland rural natural mosaic forest other natural abandoned rural land

16. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency urban dense urban diffuse cropland rural rural mosaic grassland rural natural mosaic forest other natural abandoned rural land

17. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency urban dense urban diffuse cropland rural rural mosaic grassland rural natural mosaic forest other natural abandoned rural land

18. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Landscape changes Scenario comparison GE ES CNLS U BC Now -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

19. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Lessons learnt  Stakeholder involvement:  Great energy and creativity  High sense of ownership  Increased relevance of scenarios  Headstart for strategic follow-up  Modelling:  Several iterations with stakeholders are crucial  Translation qualitative stories to quantitative model input parameters is cumbersome  Overall consistency is Achilles heel

20. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency http://scenarios.ewindows.eu.org/ http://www.eea.europa.eu/prelude PRELUDE

21. PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Land useDefinition Urban landLand covered by buildings and other man-made structures (includes residential land use, services, commercial uses and infrastructure) CroplandCultivated areas that have been tilled as well as areas with permanent crops which means crops not under a rotation system which provide repeated harvests and occupy the land for a long period before it is ploughed and replanted; e.g. vineyards, orchards. GrasslandLand with herbaceous types of cover. Tree and shrub cover is less than 10%. ForestLand dominated by trees and shrubs. surplus landAbandoned agricultural land other landUnmanaged areas such as scrubland, barren land, wetlands, inland waters, sea, permanent ice & snow Land use / Land cover classes in PRELUDE

22. PRELUDE PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe European Environment Agency Land cover type European average [%] Standard deviation [%] Dominance threshold [%] Urban land257 Cropland333265 Grassland161733 Forest302858 Other land203353 European average statistics for land cover classes (2005)