1. Central and Eastern Europe beyond Transition: Convergence and Divergence in Europe ESF Forward Look Presentation to SCSS Bath, 22 October 2009 Karen Henderson, University of Leicester

2. Why a Forward Look? Previous ESF initiatives have looked at research infrastructure in CEE The FL will look at the content of research agendas Setting new frontiers in social science research on Central and Eastern Europe

3. Why now? 1990s: ‘transition phase’ looked at fall of communism and analysing subsequent changes 2000s: ‘consolidation phase’ where European integration begins to dominate research agendas Forward Look: Post-integration agendas

4. Why ‘convergence and divergence’? The FL will identify research agendas looking specifically at CEE countries It will input into transnational research agendas, which means reassessing convergence and divergence Removing the normative assumption that convergence with Western Europe is the major aim of social development in CEE… …and looking at the domestic dynamic of change The CEE countries are not the ‘other’ in the EU; post- communist democratisation after 1989 is one of the most common democratisation paths in the EU

5. Possible foci of research Assessing the consequences of the communist experience Investigating the consequences of rapid transition and radical social change (positive and negative) Critically evaluating the effects of the EU integration process Foresight into future developments

6. Areas to be addressed Economics Social structure Democratic institutions Local governance Political cultures and identities EU integration

7. The Forward Look will… …establish a research agenda integrating contributions from scholars in diverse national settings …assess needs of user communities throughout Europe …provide actors and stakeholders in policy- making process with informed understanding of socio-economic and political change …take part in strategic development of future social science research

8. General objectives Summing up the ‘state-of-the-art’ of research in selected disciplinary areas of the project Defining the scientific challenges in the field Presenting a vision for medium and long term research directions Identifying stakeholders key to realising the vision Providing targeted recommendations for actions Defining follow-up mechanisms

9. Some major challenges Tight timeframe for the project: Science Policy Briefing within 14 months Need for sharp focus in ‘state-of-the-art’ survey, with expert scientific supervision Adaptation of foresight methods for broad geographic and discipline field

10. Work schedule Oct 2009: First Scientific Committee meeting Oct-Dec 2009: Survey 4-5 Feb 2010: Workshop I, Bratislava April/May 2010: Workshop II, Leicester June 2010: Workshop III, Sofia Oct/Nov 2010: Publication of roadmap Dec 2010: Consensus conference, Berlin June 2011: Publication of Science Policy Briefing and final report Oct 2010-April 2011: Outreach activities

11. Foresight activities Should be starting point of Forward Look Foresight activities are evolutionary – are redefined and refined throughout the FL They can be exploratory or aspirational/normative (what could happen/what do we want to happen) Foresight asks broad questions; social scientists are used to narrower ‘specialist’ questions Foresight is ‘thinking out of the box’… …but all of post-1989 development in CEE was ‘out of the box’ Foresight challenges future planning based on past not future… …but CEE assumes future based on west not communist past Or does it?

12. Organising foresight in the FL Workshop I based on horizon scanning (‘brain-storming’) and scenario planning (broad questions on future development) The evolutionary approach means the results of Workshop I inform structure of Workshops II and III… …allowing the broad approach in Workshop I to be focused on challenges in disciplines and policy recommendations

13. Output Creativity – where are we going – a CEE perspective Generating new research questions: challenging assumptions on relations between old and new EU How should future research be structured? What new inputs are required?