1. Welcome to ANR at Noon December 18, 2015 Iowa Agriculture: The "Big Picture" Farm Financial Overview Chad Hart Extension Economist

2.  Feedstuffs – ADVANTAGEOUS for livestock sector  Size of hog industry driven by last year’s profitability – Productivity to guide 2016 supply prospects  Tight cattle-beef supplies but expansion well underway – Supply of heavy cattle has driven market lately  HPAI in U.S. poultry – HUGE hit on layers/eggs, only meat impact was turkey, broilers were okay – Rebuild/expansion underway  Relatively stable domestic dairy herd expected through 2017 – Worldwide production up, prices  U.S. consumer demand has been GOOD – International trade a bit of a drag but should improve Key Factors for Livestock Source: Lee Schulz

4. YearComm’l% Chg.Avg Carcass% Chg.Comm’l Pork% Chg. QuarterSlaughterYear AgoWeightYear AgoProductionYear Ago 2015 I 28,7235.9 2150.86,1616.5 II 27,8488.9 213-1.15,9257.6 III 28,47411.4 209-1.55,9579.8 IV 30,2435.7 214-0.26,4785.7 Year 115,2887.9 213-0.524,5217.3 2016 I 29,1611.5 215-0.26,2571.6 II 27,536-1.1 2130.25,877-0.8 III 28,319-0.5 2090.15,929-0.5 IV 30,4350.6 2150.36,5370.9 Year 115,4510.1 2130.124,6000.3 2017 I 29,9092.6 2150.26,4312.8 II 28,1632.3 2140.26,0232.5 III 28,4950.6 2100.25,9760.8 IV 31,3353.0 2150.26,7423.1 Year 117,9022.1 2130.225,1722.3 LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (12/10/15) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

5. YearNat’l Wtd% Chg.CME QuarterAvg Base PriceYear AgoLHF Price 2015 I 68.55-25.0 II 73.52-34.3 III 74.60-32.3 IV 63-64-29.5 Year 70-71-30.2 2016 I 64-66-5.259-63 II 74-783.463-76 III 75-804.067-76 IV 65-717.164-67 Year 71-732.1 2017 I 62-690.867-68 II 70-78-2.6 III 70-79-3.9 IV 60-70-4.4 Year 66-74-2.8 LMIC Pork Production and Price Quarterly Forecasts (12/10/15) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

6. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

7. Source: Lee Schulz

8. ChangeAverage ChangeCommercialChange CommercialfromDressedfromBeeffrom YearSlaughterYear AgoWeightYear AgoProductionYear Ago Quarter(1,000 hd)(%)(lbs)(%)(mil lbs)(%) 2015 I 6,967-5.5 8132.25,664-3.5 II 7,227-7.8 8102.75,855-5.3 III 7,288-4.5 8322.86,066-1.8 IV 7,283-0.6 8412.36,1231.7 Year 28,765-4.7 8242.523,708-2.2 2016 I 7,1402.5 8221.15,8683.6 II 7,4052.5 8130.46,0202.8 III 7,6234.6 8360.46,3705.0 IV 7,5193.2 839-0.26,3093.0 Year 29,6873.2 8280.424,5673.6 2017 I 7,4464.3 8270.76,1615.0 II 7,7204.3 8160.46,2994.6 III 7,8152.5 8390.46,5593.0 IV 7,8574.5 8420.46,6164.9 Year 30,8383.9 8310.525,6354.3 Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC: 12/10/2015)

9. Steer Price Change FromFeeder Steer Price Year 5-Mkt Avg Year AgoSouthern Plains Quarter($/cwt)(%)7-800#5-600# 2015 I 162.4311.0215.87276.14 II 158.117.0225.29279.32 III 144.22-9.0214.38246.04 IV 132-133-20.0183-184214-216 Year 149-150-3.3209-210253-255 2016 I 140-144-12.6178-182217-222 II 144-148-7.7181-186221-228 III 138-143-2.6178-184217-225 IV 138-1446.4175-182210-219 Year 141-145-4.3179-183217-223 2017 I 138-145-0.4173-181213-223 II 138-146-2.7174-183214-225 III 133-143-1.8171-181212-223 IV 134-145-1.1167-179202-216 Year 137-143-2.1173-179212-220 Quarterly Cattle & Beef Forecasts (LMIC: 12/10/2015)

10. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

11. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)97.395.490.688.40 Yield(bu./acre)123.1158.1171.0169.30 Production(mil. bu.)10,75513,82914,21613,6540 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7310 Imports(mil. bu.)1603632300 Total Supply(mil. bu.)11,90414,68615,47915,4150 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,3155,0405,3155,3000 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,6415,1245,2095,20025 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3971,3691,3591,3800 Exports(mil. bu.)7301,9201,8641,750-50 Total Use(mil. bu.)11,08313,45413,74813,630-25 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)8211,2321,7311,78525 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.894.463.703.650 Source: USDA-WAOB

12. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)77.276.883.383.20 Yield(bu./acre)40.044.047.548.30 Production(mil. bu.)3,0423,3583,9273,9810 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)169141921910 Imports(mil. bu.)417233300 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2523,5704,0524,2030 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6891,7341,8731,8900 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)1051071451330 Exports(mil. bu.)1,3171,6381,8431,7150 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1113,4783,8613,7380 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)141921914650 Season-Average Price($/bu.)14.4013.0010.108.900 Source: USDA-WAOB

13. 2015/16 Crop Margins

14. 2016/17 Crop Margins

15. Net Farm Income

16. Projected Farm Prices ProductUnit2014201520162017 Corn$/bu3.703.653.603.65 Soybeans$/bu10.108.908.658.80 Beef$/cwt152.83149.01141.58136.49 Pork$/cwt77.1053.7151.3148.47 Milk$/cwt23.9717.0516.4016.25 Source: USDA Long-term Projections

17. 2015 Iowa Land Values Source: Wendong Zhang

18. 2015 Iowa Land Values - % Change Source: Wendong Zhang

19. 2015 Iowa Land Values - % Change Source: Wendong Zhang

20. Thank you for joining us today We invite your feedback and suggestions for future ANR @ Noon webinars: John Lawrence – jdlaw@iastate.edujdlaw@iastate.edu Chris Mondak- cmondak@iastate.educmondak@iastate.edu Next date: January 22, 2016 An Overview of New Antibiotic Use Regulations in Livestock Dr. Grant Dewell, Beef Extension veterinarian; Dr. Chris Rademacher, Swine Extension veterinarian; and Dr. Yuko Sato, Poultry Extension veterinarian