1. Toward A Framework for Implementing Systems Engineering Development for Complex Systems Karl L. Brunson, GWU Thomas A. Mazzuchi, D.Sc., GWU Shahram Sarhani, Ph.D., GWU Jeffrey Beach, D.Sc., GWU

2. Outline What is the purpose Development of ICM Framework Life-cycle Risks Acquisition Life-cycle Complex System Work Breakdown Structure Framework Schedule Development Risk Assessment of Complex System 2

3. What is the Purpose? Provide a Comprehensive and Flexible Systems Engineering Development Framework for Complex Systems Builds on the strengths and principles of proven process models such as 1 : Waterfall, V Iterative Spiral Development Agile Rapid Unified Process Applies key principles that are used throughout an acquisition life-cycle 1 : Performs risk driven process tailoring throughout life-cycle phases Incremental Commitment Model 1. Boehm, Barry and Lane, Jo Ann, Using the Incremental Commitment Model to Integrate System Acquisition, Systems Engineering and Software Engineering, USC, CSSE PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 3

4. Goal to achieve with the Framework Incremental Commitment Model Spiral Development Iterative Waterfall Complex System PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 4

5. Schedule and Cost Risks Minimization of Schedule Risks Product of Probability of certain project durations Understand the risk drivers, likelihood and consequence Minimization of Cost Risks Activity duration System complexity Sizing and Technology System Capability Stakeholder oversight PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 5

6. PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment Advanced Studies Pre-Phase A Phase A Preliminary Analysis Phase B Definition Phase C Design Phase D Development Phase E Operation Requirement s Analysis Functional Analysis Design Synthesis Engineering V&V Requirement Loop Concept Design Loop Preliminary & Detail Design Loop Verification & Validation Loop Life-Cycle Phases and Activities Identify the acquisition life-cycle: Department of Defense NASA Outline phase content: Tasks Activities 6

7. Define Work Breakdown Structure of Complex System Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 SatelliteBus Attitude Control StructurePayload Internal Instruments PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 7

8. Develop Baseline Schedule for Complex System PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 8

9. Develop Schedule for each Framework WaterfallIterative Spiral Development ICM PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 9

10. PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment Risk IDRisk DriverTask ID 001 Design issues 002 Resource Availability 003 Resource Complexity 004 Requirement Creep 005 Late Deliveries 006 Duration Underestimation 007 Task Definition Changes 008 Budget Changes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Map Risk Drivers to Schedule Tasks WaterfallIterative Spiral Development ICM Risk drivers can be mapped to more than one task Risk assessments will be translated with triangular probability distributions for consequence/impact and with binomial distributions for the likelihood 10

11. Model Schedule Behavior with Risk Drivers Risk IDRisk DriverTask ID 001 Design issues 002 Resource Availability 003 Resource Complexity 004 Requirement Creep 005 Late Deliveries 006 Duration Underestimation 007 Task Definition Changes 008 Budget Changes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 WaterfallIterative Spiral Development ICM Run Monte Carlo Simulations for each framework Outputs produce probability density distributions and binomial distributions that associates risk drivers to tasks via likelihood and consequence Indentifies critical path of each framework Quantifies the impacts and consequence of risk drivers Risk dependencies modeled via correlation PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 11

12. Risk Assessment of Complex System Cumulative distributions for schedule and costs Impact of risks on specific tasks Probabilistic critical paths for each framework identify tasks/activities that will most likely delay project Depends on risk Monte Carlo shows whether task was critical per iteration Correlation between tasks when risk driver affects durations Task durations can be negatively or positively correlated Framework selection based upon results of schedule and cost risk analysis of probability distributions Reveals optimal paths to risk reduction PurposeFrameworkRisksLife-cycleWBS Framework Schedule Risk Assessment 12