1. Climate Prediction and Products Breakout CTB Meeting November 10, 2015

2. Summary of CPC operational climate outlooks Highlights from latest CPC strategic plan Some thoughts on operational priorities in coming years Outline

3. CPC Operational Outlook Summary OutlookVariablesTypeFrequencyRelease Date and Time Days 8-14Temp/PrecipProbabilisticDaily 3 PM ET MonthlyTemp/PrecipProbabilistic2x per month3 rd Thurs of month / Last day of month 8:30 AM, 3 PM ET SeasonalTemp/PrecipProbabilistic1x per month3 rd Thursday of month 8:30 AM ET Monthly drought Drought tendency Categorical1x per monthLast day of month3 PM ET Seasonal drought Drought tendency Categorical1x per month3 rd Thursday of month 8:30 AM ET U.S. Hazards Temps, precip, winds, etc. CategoricalDailyMonday - Friday3 PM ET Global Tropics, Africa, etc. Precip, TCs, etc. CategoricalWeeklyTuesday or Wednesday 12 PM ET

4. Expand temperature and precipitation outlooks into the Week 3-4 time range Enhance hazards outlooks to include probabilistic information for Week 2 and expand into Week 3-4 Expand the monthly outlook to include outlooks for Month 2 and Month 3 Advance towards a probabilistic seasonal forecast for hurricane landfalls after research and development Implement monthly and seasonal outlooks for severe weather Expand the regional and local product suites CPC Strategic Plan Highlights

5. During FY15, CPC worked towards initial development of Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks Experimentally releasing since 9/18 once per week based on both statistical and dynamical model forecast guidance Research and transitioning existing external forecast tools that target this time scale should be a priority of CTB Week 3-4 is a high priority within NOAA and above (i.e. OSTP, etc.) Week 3-4 Outlooks

6. Seasonal Precipitation Seasonal precipitation forecast skill improvements over time are lacking Heidke Skill Score 1995-2015 Sep-Oct-Nov  Mar-Apr-May Heidke Skill Score 2005-2015, all seasons Mean: +6.7

7. Seasonal Precipitation A CPC operational priority in coming years needs to be an attempt to improve upon this issue Research on potential new sources of predictability and transitioning existing internal or external forecast tools that show promise should be a priority of CTB Statistical, dynamical and hybrid type approaches should be considered and explored by CTB An example: NWS WR has additional requirements for better understanding of events within the season, precipitation type, etc.  Western drought implications

8. Extremes A CPC operational priority in coming years needs to be an attempt to increase product suite with respect to extremes CPC only extreme related forecast products are hazard outlooks extending through Week-2 Example Week-2 probabilistic U.S. Hazards outlook for much above/below normal temperatures

9. Extremes Current operational and experimental temperature and precipitation outlooks beyond this time range are for average conditions (season, month or two week period) Research and transitioning existing external forecast tools that target extreme conditions in a probabilistic way is needed Examples could be: (1) What are the odds that this winter seasonal precipitation will rank in the top 10% of the historical distribution? (2) What is the probability of a given number of excessive heat events within the summer season in a given region? (3) Will there be an cold air outbreak anytime during the Week 3-4 time period?

10. Comments and Questions?