1. Climate Affairs: “Usable Science” for Society? Michael H. Glantz ccb.colorado.edu www.fragilecologies.com michael.glantz@colorado.edu Consortium for Capacity Building INSTAAR, Univ. of Colorado IAFS 1000 10 March 2009 global stew

2. What I mean by Climate Affairs Climate science Climate impacts On ecosystems On societies Climate policy & law Climate politics Climate economics Climate ethics & equity

3. Climate Affairs (why now?) Climate issues: – Increasingly important to governments, corporations, foundations and the public – Multidisciplinary Perceptions: – Climate anomalies: becoming more frequent, more costly, more deadly Global warming: – Looming in the 21 st century

4. What I mean by Climate Climate variability Seasonal to inter-annual Climate fluctuations Decade scale Climate change “Deep” climate change – New global climate state Extreme meteorological events Seasonality

5. All eyes are on the atmosphere, but…

6. Problem Climates or Problem Societies? OR BOTH?

7. Climate is not the only thing that is changing: Shanghai Harbor 1988 2004

8. Perceptions of Climate Climate as a resource Climate as a hazard Climate as a constraint E very society climate has a mix of all three, but the proportions vary from one country to the next and one decade to the next.

9. Climate is often a resource

10. Climate-sensitive sectors Food production Crops Fish Livestock Water resources Quantity Quality Energy Public health & safety Economy Environment Other

11. Hazards of Societal Concern (whether climate changes or not) Droughts Floods Hurricanes Ice storms Forest fires El Niño & La Niña Diseases Global warming Other

12. Global warming and extreme weather

13. US Global Change Research Program, 2000 How scientists see the climate system Understand the climate system Understand its components Climate Science Society is an integral component

15. El Niño as a Hazard-Spawner

16. Time Series for El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue) Before 1976 more blue than red; after 1976 more red than blue. Red : El Nino Blue: La Nina

17. El Niño comes of age (October 1997)

18. Climate Impacts On land and sea On societies Rich and Poor Developed and Developing North & South Human impacts on the atmosphere Heat island effect Greenhouse gas emissions Methods to separate natural from societal impacts

19. El Nino: What it can do (based on what it has done in the recent past)

20. Extremes occur every year Climate change More extremes, more frequency, more intensity, new locations

21. Hurricane Katrina (August 29, 2005)

22. Venezuelan Mud slides December 1999

23. Superstorm 1993 (March 12-15) From the Caribbean to Canada

24. Europe heat wave Summer 2003

25. High impact weather Most weather events aren’t record setting or extreme. They get less attention Yet, high impacts cause ‘misery’, death, destruction Research them » along with climate » change impacts blockbuster extremes. WMO

26. Global warming’s “Tipping points” IPCC 1st to 3rd Assessments IPCC 4th Assessment Inconvenient Truth Nobel Prize

27. Toward an ice-free Arctic Ocean Photo credit: Peter West, National Science Foundation Melting Arctic sea ice

28. Climate Policy & Law Air pollution, acid rain, ozone depletion, global warming Energy consumption, land-use practices, GHGs emission controls Trans-boundary water issues, coastal ocean issues, air-shed management IPCC deliberations and reports We are developing a “Law of the Atmosphere”

29. Creeping environmental change (CEPs): Rates and processes of change 1)CEPs are Long-term, low grade but cumulative environmental changes 2)Governments have great difficulty focusing on CEPs 3)Quick onset changes get attention; slow onset are neglected, … » Until, it’s a costly crisis 4)Rates of change are as important to monitor as are the processes of change. 5)CEPS can easily be “Forecasted by Analogy”

30. Climate Politics US Cities vs. the Federal Government California regulations to reduce greenhouse gases from automobiles for the first time anywhere. California's landmark regulations under attack from auto industry organizations demanding the roll- back of new climate protecting regulations.

31. Hurricane Katrina The Politics of Rescue Hurricane Katrina 2005

32. Climate Politics (this is the latest) Ice-Free Arctic Land grab by circum-Arctic countries Conservation vs exploitation Continental shelf oil claims Greenland considering independence US and Russians developing ice-free Arctic ports More Russian farmland but more Russian methane from permafrost melt Local, national, regional, global politics

33. Winners or losers in global warming?

34. International Response to US Pullout of Kyoto Process

35. Climate Economics Discounting the future – Present versus future generations Discounting human lives – Value of lives, North & South Prevent, mitigate or adapt – To climate variability and change

36. Early Warning Systems (EWSs) more important than governments might realize

37. Climate Ethics and Equity Generational equity Environmental justice Downwind or Downstream Natural disasters and poverty (the poor forced to live in high risk zones) Polluter Pays Precautionary Principle (“better safe now than sorry later”) Nature’s Bank analogy (everyone knows about banks)

38. Sources & Victims of GHG Impacts

39. Climate Environmental Refugees Image credit: Friends of the EarthPhoto credit: Crosbie

40. Weather (Hurricane Mitch) Refugees (Oct.-Nov. 1998)

41. Bottom Line Separate climate’s contribution to climate’s impacts from society’s contribution to those impacts

42. “Slumdog Millionaire” Q: How could you answer 12 difficult questions? A: “They asked me the 12 things I do know.” Ordinary knowledge is valuable

43. Something to think about “I said that I wasn’t clever. I was just noticing how things were, and that wasn’t clever. That was just being observant. Being clever was when you looked at how things are and used the evidence to work out something new.” (Mark Haddon, 2002)

44. and Changing role of science science and society Before the 1970s: “Science for Science” Campaign button considered radical at the time In 1970s: “Science for the People” Uppsala Universitet: Field Season 1999 After 2000: “Science with the People” Today, we need all three roles of science