1. Evolution of Digital Media Technologies: Adoption Theories Kathy E. Gill 20 January 2010

2. Overview Why Theory? A Few Quotes Context – Alphabet Soup Group Discussion Course Projects

3. Theories (1/2) ScientificHumanistic Why:Discover the “truth” Create meaning Values:Objectivity“Emancipation” Purpose:Determine universal laws Provide rules for interpretation

4. Theories (2/2) ScientificHumanistic Research Methods: Quantitative: experiment, survey Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis Judged by:  Explains data  Predicts future  Testable hypothesis  Practicality  Explains human behavior  Clarifies values  Consensus  Ability to reform society

6. Quotable 1 “ This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” -- Western Union internal memo, 1876

7. Quotable 2 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” -- H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

8. Quotable 3 “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

9. Quotable 4 “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” -- Popular Mechanics, 1949

10. What Leads To Adoption? Clearly, most of us peer into a cloudy ball, not a crystal one We’ll look at the adoption of computing technologies after ▫ Alphabet soup ▫ Supervening Social Necessity ▫ Rogers Diffusion Theory

11. Digital Communication Today PDF, PPT, RTF, XLS, DOC … GIF, JPG, PNG, SWF, MOV, AVI, MP3, AIIF … HTML, XHTML, XML, CSS, JS, Ruby On Rails, AJAX, LAMP, CF, ASP, PHP, RSS,.Net, wikis, RSS … Perl, VB, C#, Java, Ruby … P2P, SMS, FTP, MMS, IRC, VoIP, HTTP … MSN/Live/Bing, AOL, Google, Yahoo!, About.com Facebook, MySpace, YouTube, Slashdot, Twitter … HDTV, BlueRay, Hulu, Netflix/Amazon, iTunes … Anything else? (Virtual Worlds, WoW, 2ndL)

12. Why use a technology? (1/2) Cognitive Needs – Desire (demand) for information, knowledge, understanding Affective Needs – Aesthetic, pleasurable, and emotional experiences Personal Integrative Needs – Inner-directed, deal with credibility, confidence, stability, and status Social Integrative Needs – Outer-directed, strengthening relationships with family, friends, the world Escapist Needs – Desire for tension release or diversion - Katz, Gurevitch, and Haas

13. Why use a technology? (2/2) Availability Cost Network effects Buzz/coolness factor Makes something easier to do ??

14. Why … Do we adopt one technology and not another? ▫ VHS v Beta ▫ Apple’s Newton v Palm Pilot ▫ + or –R DVD media ▫ iPod v Rio or Zune ▫ BluRay v HD-DVD

15. Supervening Social Necessity Winston’s main contention ▫ More than “build a better mousetrap” VoIP: “phones work fine” – what need is being met with the new technology Advertising ▫ One goal is to build this “need”  FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt)

16. Rogers - Diffusion Theory Identified four main elements of an innovation-diffusion process ▫ Innovation ▫ Social system ▫ Time ▫ Communications channels

17. Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. Rogers, 1995, page 5

18. Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

19. Communication A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

20. Time The adoption model follows an “s” shape curve over time

21. Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010 Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

22. The Five-Year Forecast For Devices And Access September 2009“The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2009, US”

23. Social System A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

24. Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

25. Rogers: Five steps of adoption Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

26. Critical mass (1/2) Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self- sustaining.”

27. Critical mass (2/2) The critical mass theory is a social system perspective, while the dominant design theory is a technology perspective. The irreversible phase may take place when not only the critical mass point is overcome but also the dominant design is brought about at least in terms of the technological innovation.

28. Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

29. Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the knowledge base for the tool

30. Credits Crystal Ball: http://www.flickr.com/photos/bitterjug/87 0861414/ http://www.flickr.com/photos/bitterjug/87 0861414/