1. Northwest Power Planning Council Residential Space Conditioning Conservation Resource Assessment Overview of Analytical Process and Major Assumptions January 21, 2003

2. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 2 What’s Covered Three Building Types Three Building Types –Single Family (up to & including 4-plex) –Multifamily (5-plex & above) –Manufactured/Mobile Homes Three Vintages Three Vintages –Pre-1980 –1980 – 1992 –Post-1992 (= 1983 MCS level construction)

3. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 3 What’s Covered (cont) Measures/Technologies/Practices Measures/Technologies/Practices –Thermal Shell Improvements –Duct Sealing –Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heat Pumps –Heat Pump and Central Air Conditioning System Efficiency Upgrades

4. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 4 Analytical Process – Measure Cost-Effectiveness Baseline Characteristics C&R D Reports Current Codes Market Surveys Federal Standards Prototype Simulations Eleven Buildings Five locations Adjusted for “system” efficiency Nine Climate Zone Combinations 3 Heating 3 Cooling PROCOST Market Price Forecast Load Shapes T&D Losses & Value Non-Energy Benefits Unit Level Results “Optimized” Measure Order Cost-Effectiveness Determination

5. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 5 Analytical Process – Interactive Measures Building Thermal Shells Insulated to Cost- Effectiveness Limit Ducts Sealed and Insulated to Cost- Effectiveness Limit Heat Pump Conversions/ Upgrades Internal Gains Adjusted to Reflect Cost-Effective Appliance and Lighting Efficiency Improvements

6. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 6 Analytical Process – “Applicable Units” Housing Stock Housing Stock –Built Pre-1980, surviving in 2025 –Built Post-1980/Pre1993, surviving in 2025 –Built between 2005 – 2025 Duct Systems & Space Conditioning Equipment Duct Systems & Space Conditioning Equipment –Single Family and Manufactured Homes –Heating & Cooling Equipment Installed in New Construction and Replaced “on burn out”

7. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 7 Preliminary Results – Measures with Resource Potential Over 10 aMW

8. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 8 Preliminary Residential Space Conditioning Supply Curve

9. Northwest Power Planning Councilslide 9 Why “Preliminary” Applicable Units Need Further “Scrubbing” Applicable Units Need Further “Scrubbing” –SGC-Single Family – Adjust for penetration of Energy Star windows –PTCS Duct Sealing – Adjust for non- crawlspace construction and existing “tight” duct systems –Maybe some other smaller adjustments