1. Probability

2. 1 in 1 x 10 How Did We Calculate the Probability of a Protein Forming by Chance? 195

3. Probability Define probability Review how to calculate probability Look at probability calculations common in origins discussions

4. Probability Likelihood or chance Expressed as a fraction

5. Probability of Rolling a “4”

6. Probability of Landing on Red

7. Probability of getting red

9. Probability of getting blue

10. Probability of getting green

11. Probability of getting purple

12. Probability of Multiple Events

16. Possible Outcomes

17. Number of: Digits Dials

18. Number of: Digits Dials

19. 4 =10,000 Number of: Digits Dials

20. 4 = 10,000

21. 4 5

22. 4 5 = 11,881,376

23. 150 amino acids long 5150 How many possible combinations exist?

24. 5150 195 How many possible combinations exist? 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 181

25. The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence

26. The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 195

27. The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000

28. The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 195

29. The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 195

30. Useful Protein? ?

31. What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold and potentially form useful proteins?

32. What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold? 195 ?

33. What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold? 195 ?

34. What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold? 195 ? 74

35. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold

36. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding

37. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality (“right-handed” or “left-handed”) Chemical bonding Amino acid forms – Right-handed – Left-handed Only left-handed ones are used in living cells

38. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality (“right-handed” or “left-handed”) Chemical bonding Probability of choosing a single, left-handed amino acid = ½

39. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality (“right-handed” or “left-handed”) Chemical bonding The probability of choosing 150 left-handed amino acids in a row is (1/2) 150, or 1 in 10 45 45

40. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding

41. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding Probability of two amino acids joining by a peptide bond = ½

42. Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding The probability of 150 amino acids joining only by peptide bonding is (1/2) 150, or 1 in 10 45 45

43. Probability of one functional protein by chance

45. 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212 74

46. Probability of one functional protein by chance 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212 74 45

47. Probability of one functional protein by chance 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212 45 74 45

48. Probability of one functional protein by chance 150 amino acids long 45 74 45 164 Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212

49. Probability of one functional protein by chance 164 Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212 164

50. The Problem of Contamination These calculations do not reflect the problem of contamination. In the real world, other chemicals are present that would interfere with protein formation, reducing the probability effectively to zero.

51. Could It Happen Anyway? Suppose we ignore the problem of contamination, And suppose we ignore the problem of where the amino acids would come from, And suppose we ignore the problem of finding the right conditions for the amino acids to react together, Is it reasonable to think that a protein might form by chance?

52. How many opportunities have there been for this to happen?

53. What Probabilities Are Reasonable? Probability of a protein forming by chance (assuming the universe was composed only of amino acids) Number of events scientists say have occurred in the history of the universe ? 164

54. 80 Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212 Events in the History of the Universe

55. 80 43 Events in the History of the Universe

56. 80 43 16 Events in the History of the Universe

57. 80 43 16 139 Events in the History of the Universe

58. Comparing Probabilities 150 amino acids long 164 139

59. How likely would this be? Like a Boeing 747 being assembled by a tornado blowing through a junkyard

60. Conclusions Even if the universe were made entirely of amino acids, it is unrealistic to expect a protein to form by chance. Living organisms require hundreds or thousands of proteins in order to live. Creation is the best explanation for the origin of living organisms.

61. Recorded at Chattanooga Public Radio SM Classical 90.5 WSMC

62. Images may appear on more than one slide. Citation is given on the first slide where each image appears. [1] Slide design, Susan Landon [5] Dice 16134810, JuSun, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [6] Spinner 9277784, quisp65, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [7] Marbles 5339131, sweetym, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [17] Combination lock 2840126, mipan, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [20b] Combination lock 6498864, marekuliasz, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [23b] Snap and Lock blocks, Carol Raney [30b] Insulin 9717900, theasis, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [59a] Tornado 32349874, fergregory, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [59b] Junk yard 7515063, vm, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement [59c] Boeing 747 4941515, Daniel Barnes, Getty Images (US), Inc. Subscription Agreement Images By

63. Special Thanks Foundation for Adventist Education

64. Special Thanks Jim Gibson Geoscience Research Institute and the Foundation for Adventist Education

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