1. The Welsh case

2. Religious affiliation, England and Wales, 2011

3. Census: Office for National Statistics Changes from 2001 to 2011 an increase in the population reporting no religion – from 14.8 per cent of the population in 2001 to 25.1 per cent in 2011 a drop in the population reporting to be Christian – from 71.7 per cent in 2001 to 59.3 per cent in 2011 an increase in all other main religions; the number of Muslims increased the most from 3.0 per cent in 2001 to 4.8 per cent in 2011

4. Regional differences

5. Late-onset secularization 1994-2014: a marked shift in the relative fortunes of England, Scotland and Wales Parallel cases (with appropriate caution) The Netherlands, Quebec 1994: the population of Wales was twice as active as England on a wide range of religious indicators and Scotland three times so 2014: England is now relatively stable in terms of church membership; Scotland and Wales not so

6. The distinctiveness of Wales The significance of non-conformity in Welsh culture/ self- understanding The importance of language – a criss-crossing of identities rather than a national church A particular history – rapid growth alongside industrialization as non-conformist churches moved with the population to urban areas Constructing the middle ground in Wales what might this look like; who might be involved?

7. Images of religious affiliation England, Scotland and Wales Siobham McAndrew – BRIN (British Religion in Numbers) ‘I wanted to see how religious affiliation varies by birth decade in England, Scotland and Wales, and how the affiliation of younger birth cohorts compares with that of older birth cohorts.’ A marked growth in the ‘no religion’ category – at whose expense? http://www.brin.ac.uk/news/2011/religious-affiliation-by-birth- decade/

11. The factors to take into account: cultural heritage vicarious religion a shift from obligation to consumption new arrivals secular alternatives Wales as an exceptional/distinctive case Applying these to your own situation (national and local) The British (European) case

12. Variations within Wales How to establish these? Using the Census Building (very) local profiles Towyn – permanent population of 2,500 but around 60,000 in the summer (largest area of caravans in Europe)! the consequences: the parish is very different in winter and in summer. how to plan for this? Cefn Mawr and District – understanding urban character

13. The Church in Wales Review The key question is the same as that in England indeed in Europe – see Portraits du catholicisme How to ‘manage’ the parish system when the traditional (historic) model is no longer affordable? Thinking carefully about the advantages and disadvantages of the present situation What is essential/ worth-keeping/ expendable/ problematic? Opinions differ

14. The advantages of the Welsh case ‘The legacy of establishment has good features, not least a continuing sense of responsibility to the wider community, and a respected position from which to speak to it. But as a disestablished church, the Church in Wales has, and ought to claim, the freedom that comes from this in making necessary changes.’ Review, p. 3 ‘Suspending parishes in the Church in Wales is a much easier matter, legally, than it is in the Church of England. It can be done by the Bishop.’ Review, p. 6

15. And disadvantages.. These are carefully delineated in the Review together with specific recommendations to overcome them structure, resources and leadership Statistical alarm – the trigger for action: clergy (retirements, shortage of ordinands) the non-viability of the present parish system declining church membership the absence of young people

16. Applying the Review at local level Applying the same clarity of thought as that found in the review itself Diocesan Conference, Bishop’s Council: Standing Committee ‘A Response to the Church in Wales Review 2012’ The next steps. What might these be? Not everything is predictable Remember the London case – this was not anticipated