1. Section 3.1: Basic Concepts of Probability

2. Objective: To be able to understand and apply the basic rules of probability. A probability experiment is an outcome or trial through which results are obtained. An outcome is the result of one single trial in a probability experiment. The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment is called the sample space. (S) A tree diagram is one technique for finding the sample space.

3. Ex 1. Draw a tree diagram and list the sample space for the following probability experiment: Flip a coin and roll a die.

4. Ex. 2 Draw a tree diagram and list the sample space for the following probability experiment: A family plans on having 3 children.

6. 2. Theoretical Probability: probability based on a mathematical model. Ex. 4 Using a standard deck of cards, what is the probability of choosing a king? Law of Large Numbers: As the number of trials increases, the empirical probability approaches the theoretical probability Ex. Flipping a coin in excel and observing the percentage as n increases. (Demo) 3. Subjective Probability: probability based on an educated guess. Ex. Weather, stocks, horseracing, doctors…