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KAOLIN: STATE OF THE INDUSTRY U.S. Clay Producers Traffic Association Spring Meeting March 22, 2011
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Agenda Current Environment Kaolin Industry Coated Paper Markets Industry Outlook Magazines Coated Paper
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Kaolin Current Environment
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Major Producers
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Source: Industrial Minerals, August 2008 1980 Carbonates 9%2003 Carbonates 62%2014 Carbonates 65% Worldwide Pigment Usage in Paper
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World Kaolin Sales by Market* *as of 2007
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Coating Kaolin Production & Demand 2010 North America South America Europe Asia Japan CapacityDemand Total Capacity ≈ 9.1 mm tpy Total Demand ≈ 7.9 mm tpy 2.7 3.4 2.8 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.8 0.5
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Coated Paper Current Environment
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NA Coated Leaders Coated GroundwoodCoated FreesheetTOTAL NewPage150117673268 Verso9776201597 Sappi--1215 AbitibiBowater69040730 Kruger399--399 UPM-Kymmene390--390 Appleton Coated--350 Catalyst Paper255--255 Domtar238--238 Belgravia--234 Evergreen200--200 Other154125279 TOTAL480443519155 83%52%66%
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NA CFS & CGW Shipments 3Q10 vs. 3Q09 = 8% Source: RISI and AF&PA 2Q3Q
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US Coated Papers Utilization Rate Source: RISI
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US Coated Paper Prices Source: RISI
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Industry Outlook
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Magazine Ad Pages % Change y-o-y Source: UPM & Zenith Optimedia
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NA CFS Operating Rate Forecast Source: Risi & EMGE Balanced market
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NA CGW Operating Rate Forecast Balanced market Source: Risi & EMGE
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Recessionary Adjustments
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Trends for Coated Paper Positive Magazine advertising pages up Catalogers increasing circulation Retailers using more direct mail Olympics Mid-term elections Negatives Electronic EVERYTHING Consumer confidence
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Paper Growth Rates by Region 2006 through 2025
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Questions? Cynthia Willcox Marketing Associate Thiele Kaolin Company 478-552-9710 Cynthia.willcox@thielekaolin.com
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