1. Probabilistic hazard analysis of earthquake-induced landslides – an example from Kuohsing, Taiwan Liao, Chi-Wen Industrial Technology Research Institute Lee, Chyi-Tyi Institute of Applied Geology, National Central University The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009

2. Introduction  The rigid sliding block approach proposed by Newmark provides a useful index of how a slope will perform during seismic shaking  Conduct a earthquake-induced landslide hazard analysis incorporating rigid sliding block model with PSHA  Regional assessment on earthquake-induced landslides using geographical information system Infinite slope model cohesion; unit weight of the material; vertical depth to failure; slope angle; angle of internal friction Critical acceleration Jibson (1998)

3. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 LEGEND Travasarou et al. (2003) This study (Campbell Form) 43 events, 5109 records c1c1 c2c2 c3c3 c4c4 hs 11 s 12 s 21 s 22 2.800-1.98120.72-1.7038.780.4540.1010.4790.334 I a : Arias Intensity, M: moment mag (M W ) ， r rup : closest distance to rupture plane (km), C1~C6 : coefficients, S: Site condition (rock site S=0 ， soil site S=1)

4. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 (Cheng, 2002)

5. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Amplification correction factor of Arias intensity m/s

6. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Amplification correction factor of Arias intensity m/s

7. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 KouHsing, Central Taiwan

8. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 1999/4/271999/10/31 Landslide inventory from SPOT image

9. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 KouHsing, Central Taiwan

10. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Alluvium Terraces Lateritic Terraces (Lt) Toukoushan (Tk2) Toukoushan (Tk1) Cholan (Cl) Kueichulin (Kc) Fulongyuan (Fl) Houdongkeng (Hd) Shihmentsun (Sm) Tanliaodi (Tnt) Shihshiku (Tns) Shuichangliu (Sc) Paileng (Pl) Chiayang (Cy) Dachien (Dc)

11. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 17.5% Shear strength properties back-calculated from landslide inventory Geological Unit Cohesion (KPa) Friction (Degree) Lt15.5034.00 Tk217.2227.78 Tk1, Cl19.0023.50 Kc15.0033.25 Hd, Fl14.7534.50 Sm, Tn16.0030.00 Sc16.5030.00 Pl13.5038.50 Cy12.0042.00 Geological Unit Cohesion (KPa) Friction (Degree) Lt12.0042.00 Tk215.2234.50 Tk1, Cl16.0031.00 Kc12.5639.44 Hd, Fl 13.9338.20 Sm, Tn15.3333.83 Sc14.1735.17 Pl10.8645.57 Cy10.9345.40

12. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Slope angle (degree) (km) FS (km) Ac (g) NA (km) NA (km)

13. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 (km) NA Landslides

14. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 (km) NA (km) NA Landslides (km)

15. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Arias intensity (10% in 50 yrs) This study Arias intensity (10% in 50 yrs) Travasarou (2003) Arias intensity (2% in 50 yrs) This study Arias intensity (20% in 50 yrs) Travasarou (2003) (km)

16. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 (km) Landslide Susceptibility High(>20%) M-H(10-20%) Medium(5-10%) L-M(2-5%) Low(<2%) NA Landslide Susceptibility High(>20%) M-H(10-20%) Medium(5-10%) L-M(2-5%) Low(<2%) NA Landslide Susceptibility High(>20%) M-H(10-20%) Medium(5-10%) L-M(2-5%) Low(<2%) NA Landslide Susceptibility Map Chi-Chi Earthquake Landslide Susceptibility Map 10% in 50 yrs Landslide Susceptibility Map 2% in 50 yrs

17. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Arias intensity (10% in 50 yrs) This study Arias intensity (10% in 50 yrs) Travasarou (2003) Arias intensity (2% in 50 yrs) This study Arias intensity (20% in 50 yrs) Travasarou (2003) (km)

18. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Arias intensity hazard curve

19. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 NA (km) NA (km) NA (km) Annual Probability of Exceedance This study Annual Probability of Exceedance Travasarou (2003) Annual Probability of Exceedance This study (Amplification Corrected) Annual Probability of Exceedance Travasarou (2003) (Amplification Corrected)

20. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 (km) Probability NA Annual Probability of Dn > 10cm This study Annual Probability of Dn > 10cm Travasarou (2003) Annual Probability of Dn > 15cm This study Annual Probability of Dn > 15cm Travasarou (2003)

21. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009 Conclusion Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis integrated with Newmark’s model provides earthquake-induced landslide hazard maps with temporal resolution, suitable for regional planning and scenario analysis Comparison of attenuation equations of Arias intensity has shown significant influences for earthquake-induced landslide hazard analysis, localized attenuation equations are necessary for unique tectonic setting Correction to terrain amplification will improve Arias intensity prediction model The difficulties in obtaining experimental shear strength properties can be resolved by back-analysis procedure on landslide inventory Recent studies provide more rigorous indexes for earthquake-induced landslide hazard analysis, combinations of Ac, PGA, PGV, Ia, or other ground motion parameters may reduce model uncertainties

22. Thank you for your attention

23. The Next Generation of Research on Earthquake-induced Landslides: An International Conference in Commemoration of 10th Anniversary of the Chi-Chi Earthquake, 2009