1. 2015 Missouri Economic Forecast Dr. David Mitchell, Director Bureau of Economic Research Professor of Economics

2. Missouri Business Loans Thds of 2014 SA dollars

3. Missouri Real Estate Loans Thds of 2014 SA dollars

4. Real Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 30-89 days (thds of dollars)

5. Real Missouri Bank Loans Past Due 90+ days (thds of dollars)

6. Missouri Real Personal Income (2014 Constant $ SAAR)

7. Growth in Personal Income (Year over year)

8. 0.78%

9. Change in Real Weekly Wages Year over Year

10. Change in Real Weekly Wages Since Recession Start

11. Missouri Unemployment Rate 6.3% 9.6%

12. Major City Unemployment Rates 6.4%

13. Other Unemployment Rates 4.9% 6.0%

14. Labor Force in Missouri

15. + 55,800 over 27 months

16. Labor Force in Missouri

18. Missouri Employment *Peak 2,811K (2/2008) *Trough 2,649K (1/2010) *Current 2,789K [11/2006]

19. Missouri Employment *Peak 2,811K (2/2008) *Trough 2,649K (1/2010) *Current 2,789K [11/2006] 2,754K Dec 99

20. Index of Missouri and US Employment (Jan 2000 = 100)

21. Change in Missouri Employment (thds) (Sep 2013 to Sep 2014)

22. Change in Missouri Employment (thds) (Jun 2009 to Present)

23. Change in Missouri Employment (Pct growth - Jun 2009 to Present)

24. Missouri Employment (Percent Change Year over Year)

25. Change in Missouri Employment (SA Establishment Survey with 100 = 1 st month of recovery)

26. Employment Growth in Missouri (Jan 2000=100)

27. Employment Growth in Missouri (1 st month of recovery =100)

28. Missouri Employment Breakdown Industry Jan 2014Sep 2014Change Change in Percent Employ (CPS) SA 2,843.52,855.4120.4 Nonfarm (CES) NSA 2,695.72,801.11053.9 Nonfarm (CES) SA 2,749.42,787.7381.4 Private 2,294.92,331.2361.6 Construction 104.4109.454.8 Financial 164.7168.43.72.2 Government 454.3456.52.20.5 Health 436.44447.61.7 Information 57.157.70.61.1 Leisure 290.3295.65.31.8 Manufacturing 252.3256.44.11.6 Mining 4.14.20.12.4 Prof Biz Services 355.7362.97.22.0 Retail 296.7298.51.80.6 Trans/Utilities 98.396.8-1.5 Wholesale 119121.72.72.3 Other Services 115.9115.6-0.3

29. Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

30. Millions of Real Missouri Sales Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

31. Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

32. Millions of Real Missouri Corporate Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

33. Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (End of Fiscal Year) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

34. Millions of Real Missouri Income Taxes (YTD) in Sep ‘12 Dollars

35. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Interviewed 400 people in MoKan, Arkansas, and Oklahoma Identical questions to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey so that the results can be compared directly This is used to create an index which tracks consumer sentiment relative to a past date

36. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey June 2014 National RegionalArkansas Missouri Oklahoma Index 82.5 71.4 67.4 68.6 76.4

37. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey All Families Families Under $75,000 Families Over $75,000 Regional 71.4 65.8 82.6 Missouri 68.6 59.2 79.8

38. Missouri Compared to the US

39. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year

40. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year

41. Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years

42. 2015/2016 Missouri Forecast Industry 2014 Actual 2015 F2016 F Sep 2014 Nonfarm (CES)2,787.72,827.12,856.2 Private2,331.22,364.502,391.40 Construction109.4110.7112.4 Financial168.4172.3176.3 Government456.5462.6464.8 Health444450.6457.3 Information57.757.056.4 Leisure295.6305.0308.2 Manufacturing256.4257.6259 Mining4.24.14.2 Prof Biz Services362.9371.9379.9 Retail298.5299.4298.9 Trans/Utilities96.897.297.5 Wholesale121.7123.5125.4 Other Services115.6115.2115.9 Unemployment Rate (SA)6.36.05.7 Real Personal Income 252,490.4 (Q2)255,745259,746