1. Meteorology 415 Fall 2011 Review of Forecast 1 Contest 2 Allentown, PA

3. FAA Identifier: ABE Lat/Long: 40-39-08.5056N / 075- 26-25.4443W 40-39.141760N / 075-26.424072W 40.6523627 / -75.4404012 (estimated) Elevation: 393 ft. / 119.8 m (surveyed) Variation: 12W (2005) From city: 3 miles NE of ALLENTOWN, PA

4. Observations from Allentown KABE 271751Z 13005KT 10SM SCT019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP137 T02560200 10256 20194 56012= KABE 271759Z 15007KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2994 RMK AO2= KABE 271851Z 14006KT 10SM FEW023 SCT085 27/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP131 T02670206= KABE 271859Z 12006KT 10SM BKN019 26/20 A2992 RMK AO2= KABE 271951Z 15007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN030 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP124 T02610206= KABE 272020Z 12009G14KT 10SM SCT025 BKN032 26/21 A2990 RMK AO2= KABE 272051Z 11007KT 10SM SCT025 BKN033 BKN040 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP126 T02610206 55011= KABE 272151Z 10009KT 10SM FEW024 SCT028 BKN038 26/21 A2991 RMK AO2 SLP125 T02560206= KABE 272251Z 11014G20KT 10SM FEW021 BKN030 OVC041 24/21 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 T02440206= KABE 272305Z 13010G20KT 10SM FEW019 BKN026 OVC070 24/21 A2993 RMK AO2= KABE 272326Z 13010G18KT 10SM SCT025 SCT039 BKN110 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2= KABE 272351Z 12008KT 10SM SCT028 BKN035 23/21 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP133 T02330206 10267 20233 53007=

5. Observations from Allentown ► KABE 280051Z 11008KT 10SM FEW013 BKN041 22/20 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP140 T02220200= ► KABE 280119Z 10010KT 10SM BKN013 OVC034 22/20 A2996 RMK AO2= ► KABE 280127Z 11008KT 10SM BKN015 OVC034 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2= ► KABE 280151Z 09006KT 10SM BKN015 BKN080 OVC100 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02220194= ► KABE 280213Z 08007KT 10SM SCT013 BKN100 OVC110 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2= ► KABE 280241Z 08007KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 BKN095 22/19 A2995 RMK AO2= ► KABE 280251Z 09006KT 10SM BKN013 BKN028 22/19 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP142 T02170194 51009= ► KABE 280351Z 09009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2996 RMK AO2 RAB0255E09 SLP141 P0000 T02110194= ► KABE 280451Z 10009KT 10SM OVC011 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP136 T02110194 402670183= ► KABE 280551Z 09007KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB26 CIG 006V013 SLP134 P0002 60002 T02060194 10233 20206 ► 56007= ► KABE 280608Z 10006KT 10SM FEW007 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 P0000= ► KABE 280622Z 09007KT 10SM BKN009 BKN013 OVC024 21/19 A2994 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V011 P0000= ► KABE 280651Z 10008KT 10SM OVC009 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE0555 CIG 006V014 SLP131 P0000 T02060194= ► KABE 280751Z AUTO 09008KT 10SM -RA OVC009 21/19 A2991 RMK AO2 RAB10E19B51 CIG 006V012 SLP127 P0000 T02060194 TSNO= ► KABE 280851Z AUTO 10007KT 8SM RA BKN007 BKN018 OVC045 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP128 P0010 60010 T02000194 55006 TSNO= ► KABE 280910Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0003 TSNO= ► KABE 280910Z AUTO 09007KT 5SM +RA BR SCT007 BKN030 OVC060 20/19A2992= ► KABE 280920Z AUTO 09006KT 7SM -RA SCT007 BKN026 OVC047 20/19 A2992 RMK AO2 P0007 TSNO= ► KABE 280951Z 09007KT 10SM -RA FEW007 OVC024 21/19 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 P0007 T02060194= ► KABE 281032Z 09007KT 10SM FEW006 BKN014 OVC031 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 P0000= ► KABE 281051Z 09007KT 10SM BKN008 OVC016 21/19 A2993 RMK AO2 RAE01 CIG 005V013 SLP131 P0000 T02060194= ► KABE 281151Z 09006KT 10SM OVC006 21/20 A2995 RMK AO2 RAB28E47 SLP137 P0000 60017 70019 T02060200 10206 20200 53009=

6. Synoptic Pattern

7. Radar

8. Surface Analysis

9. Verification

10. Standings

11. Lessons Learned - ABE ► The distance to the action makes a difference in initiation of rain – that is a slow moving disturbance’s advection fields (thermal and wind) lose their influence farther away from its boundaries ► Precipitation tends to be ‘debris’ in a near steady-state environment ► Low ceilings are easier to come by in a very humid air mass!

12. Fort Wayne, IN

13. FAA Identifier: FWA Lat/Long: 40- 58-42.5000N / 085-11-42.6000W 40-58.708333N / 085-11.710000W 40.9784722 / -85.1951667 (estimated) Elevation: 814 ft. / 248.1 m (surveyed) Variation: 03W (1985) From city: 7 miles SW of FORT WAYNE, IN

14. Observations from Fort Wayne KFWA 271754Z 16016G21KT 10SM FEW023 BKN070 BKN230 17/11 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP081 60011 T01670111 10167 20111 58008= KFWA 271854Z 16014KT 10SM FEW031 BKN070 BKN085 17/11 A2976 RMK AO2 SLP075 T01720106= KFWA 271923Z 26007KT 5SM RA BR BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0002= KFWA 271940Z 26006KT 5SM +RA BR OVC031 13/11 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 P0007= KFWA 271954Z 24010KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT031 BKN035 OVC044 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 RAB07 SLP081 P0021 T01280117= KFWA 272010Z 22004KT 4SM RA BR FEW029 BKN044 OVC065 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 P0010= KFWA 272054Z 16003KT 10SM FEW055TCU BKN075 BKN250 14/12 A2976 RMK AO2 RAE44 SLP076 TCU W P0012 60033 T01440122 57005= 57005= KFWA 272154Z 18004KT 10SM SCT017 BKN026 BKN070 BKN140 15/13 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP082 T01500128= KFWA 272207Z 20004KT 10SM FEW017 BKN030 BKN075 BKN140 15/12 A2977 RMK AO2= KFWA 272254Z 25010G15KT 10SM FEW022 BKN085 BKN110 BKN250 15/12 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP087 T01500117= KFWA 272354Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 60033 T01330111 10178 20128 51015=

15. Observations from Fort Wayne ► KFWA 272354Z 23004KT 10SM FEW022 BKN055 OVC200 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP092 60033 T01330111 10178 20128 51015= ► KFWA 280054Z 14004KT 10SM FEW050 SCT100 OVC200 12/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP093 T01220106= ► KFWA 280126Z 19008KT 10SM BKN026 OVC100 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2= ► KFWA 280154Z 20007KT 10SM OVC021 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP096 T01330106= ► KFWA 280216Z 18006KT 10SM SCT021 OVC031 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2= ► KFWA 280251Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2= ► KFWA 280254Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP093 T01330106 51002= ► KFWA 280251Z 18007KT 10SM BKN019 OVC032 13/11 A2981= ► KFWA 280254Z 18006KT 10SM BKN019 OVC029 13/11 A2981= ► KFWA 280354Z 17006KT 9SM OVC019 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 T01330106= ► KFWA 280454Z 16007KT 10SM -DZ OVC017 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 DZB11 SLP087 P0000 T01280111 401780106= ► KFWA 280554Z 18007KT 10SM BKN021 BKN030 OVC035 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 DZE27RAB27E47 SLP082 P0000 60000 T01330106 10139 ► 20122 58009= ► KFWA 280654Z 18006KT 8SM FEW010 BKN021 OVC033 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 RAB06E53 SLP084 P0002 T01280117= ► KFWA 280754Z 19007KT 8SM OVC016 13/12 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP081 T01280117= ► KFWA 280854Z 20004KT 8SM FEW013 BKN023 OVC035 13/12 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP083 60002 T01280117 55000= ► KFWA 280954Z 18005KT 8SM FEW022 BKN029 OVC038 13/11 A2978 RMK AO2 SLP085 T01280111= ► KFWA 281054Z 19006KT 6SM BR SCT014 OVC027 13/11 A2979 RMK AO2 SLP087 T01280111= ► KFWA 281115Z 19005KT 7SM FEW018 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2= ► KFWA 281143Z 19005KT 6SM BR BKN020 OVC035 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2= ► KFWA 281154Z 20005KT 5SM BR SCT020 BKN029 OVC037 13/11 A2980 RMK AO2 SLP091 60002 70046 T01280111 10133 20122 53008=

16. Synoptic Pattern

17. Radar

18. Surface Analysis

19. Verification

20. Standings

21. Lessons Learned – Fort Wayne ► The east side of a trough is the action zone. ► The advection fields are more dynamic near the center of the upper cut-off. ► Breaks in the clouds produce self-destruct showers. ► Winds can be gusty due to mixing from convection. ► Temperatures tend to stay in a narrow range.