1. Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Hydrologic Implications of Climate Change for the Pacific Northwest, and Columbia River Basin

2. Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_high_res.html Aug, 13, 1941Aug, 31, 2004 Recession of the Muir Glacier

3. Global Climate Change Scenarios and Hydrologic Impacts for the PNW

4. Modeling experiments reproduce the history of global temperatures remarkably well. Natural forcings (e.g. volcanic eruptions and variations in solar radiation) alone cannot explain the rapid rise in temperature at the end of the 20 th century.

5. Consensus Forecasts of Temperature and Precipitation Changes from IPCC AR4 GCMs

6. Pacific Northwest °C 0.4-1.0°C 0.9-2.4°C 1.2-5.5°C Observed 20th century variability +1.7°C +0.7°C +3.2°C

7. Pacific Northwest % -1 to +3% -1 to +9% -2 to +21% Observed 20th century variability +1% +2% +6%

8. Will Global Warming be “Warm and Wet” or “Warm and Dry”? Answer: Probably BOTH! Natural Flow Columbia River at The Dalles

9. Regionally Averaged Cool Season Precipitation Anomalies PRECIP

10. Snow Model Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model and Energy Balance Snow Model

11. The warmer locations are most sensitive to warming +2.3C, +6.8% winter precip 2060s

12. Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49 Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997

13. April 1 SWE (mm) 20 th Century Climate“2040s” (+1.7 C)“2060s” (+ 2.25 C) -3.6%-11.5% Changes in Simulated April 1 Snowpack for the Canadian and U.S. portions of the Columbia River basin (% change relative to current climate) -21.4%-34.8%

14. Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming Impacts: Increased winter flow Earlier and reduced peak flows Reduced summer flow volume Reduced late summer low flow

15. Chehalis River

16. Hoh River

17. Nooksack River

18. Mapping of Sensitive Areas in the PNW by Fraction of Precipitation Stored as Peak Snowpack HUC 4 Scale Watersheds in the PNW

19. Climate Change Impacts are Similar to Impacts of Water Management in PNW Hydropower Systems Skagit River at Mt. Vernon Estimated natural flows

20. Changes in Flood Risk in the Western U.S.

21. Tmin Tmax PNW CACRB GB Regionally Averaged Temperature Trends Over the Western U.S. 1916-2003

22. X 20 2003 / X 20 1915 DJF Avg Temp (C) Simulated Changes in the 20-year Flood Associated with 20 th Century Warming X 20 2003 / X 20 1915

23. DJF Avg Temp (C) 20-year Flood for “1973-2003” Compared to “1916-2003” for a Constant Late 20 th Century Temperature Regime X 20 ’73-’03 / X 20 ’16-’03

24. Summary of Flooding Impacts Rain Dominant Basins: Possible increases in flooding due to increased precipitation variability, but no significant change from warming alone. Mixed Rain and Snow Basins Along the Coast: Strong increases due to warming and increased precipitation variability (both effects increase flood risk) Inland Snowmelt Dominant Basins: Relatively small overall changes because effects of warming (decreased risks) and increased precipitation variability (increased risks) are in the opposite directions.

25. Landscape Scale Ecosystem Impacts

26. 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Year 8.0 7.0 1999 2001 2000 2003 2002 Annual area (ha × 10 6 ) affected by MPB in BC 2005 9.0 2004 Bark Beetle Outbreak in British Columbia (Figure courtesy Allen Carroll)

27. Temperature thresholds for coldwater fish in freshwater +1.7 °C +2.3 °C Warming temperatures will increasingly stress coldwater fish in the warmest parts of our region –A monthly average temperature of 68ºF (20ºC) has been used as an upper limit for resident cold water fish habitat, and is known to stress Pacific salmon during periods of freshwater migration, spawning, and rearing

28. The recession of the Illecillewaet Glacier at Rogers Pass between 1902 and 2002. Photographs courtesy of the Whyte Museum of the Canadian Rockies & Dr. Henry Vaux. 1902 2002 Wide-Spread Glacial Retreat has Accompanied 20 th Century Warming. Loss of glacial mass may increase summer flow in the short term and decrease summer flow in the long term.

29. Changes in water quantity and timing Reductions in summer flow and water supply Increases in drought frequency and severity Changes in hydrologic extremes Changing flood risk (up or down) Summer low flows (glacial losses) Changes in groundwater supplies Changes in water quality Increasing water temperature (flow timing/loss of glaciers) Changes in sediment loading (up or down) Changes in nutrient loadings (up or down) Changes in land cover via disturbance Forest fire Insects Disease Invasive species Impact Pathways Associated with Climate

30. Changes in the energy sector Hydropower Energy demand Changes in outdoor recreation Tourism Skiing Camping Boating Changes in environmental impacts and services Fish and wildlife management Streamflow augmentation and temperature control Hatchery design and management Habitat restoration programs Endangered species recovery programs Invasive species (e.g. warm water fish) Impact Pathways Associated with Climate

31. Changes in transportation corridors Changing risk of flooding, avalanche or debris flows Sea level rise Coastal engineering Land use planning Changes in engineering design standards Road construction and maintenance Storm water systems Flood plain definitions Building design Land slide risks Impact Pathways Associated with Climate

32. Anticipate changes. Accept that the future climate will be substantially different than the past. Use scenario based planning to evaluate options rather than the historic record. Expect surprises and plan for flexibility and robustness in the face of uncertain changes rather than counting on one approach. Plan for the long haul. Where possible, make adaptive responses and agreements “self tending” to avoid repetitive costs of intervention as impacts increase over time. Approaches to Adaptation and Planning