1. Modeling of passenger egress from aircraft fire for safety Daniel Odigie Due to unexpected difficulties, Daniel Odigie was unable to present this material at the Aircraft Fire & Cabin Safety Research Conference. This presentation was made by Graham Greene on his behalf.

2. Modeling Of Passenger Egress From Aircraft Fire For Safety By Daniel Odigie Ph.D

3. Modeling Issues Network Modeling Handling Different Types of Passengers Fire and Incapacitation Survival Probability Use of Results Areas of Need

4. Network Representation

5. Network Representation of Aircraft

6. Passenger’s Distances to Exits

7. Adjacency matrix for the passengers GROUPS 1234 U 350300250200 Table 3Group Untenable Conditions U = Utenable Condition

8. For a  n  a + b. a = 20, x = 0.5, b = 10 h n = 0 for n > a + b. For 0  x  1 an increasing order discrete hazard function Hazard Function Example

9. Start t=0, i=1 Evaluate Status of next Passenger k=k+1 Is Passeng er Alive? Determine Accessible Adjacent Node Generate Incapacitation with Hazard function and dose Passenger with Incapacitation Units for unit of time for the additional distance traveled and or for delay. U=U+1 Any Available Accessible Adjacent Node? More than 1 Node? Generate and add Delay Perform a Bernoulli Trial with Hazard function. Move to next chosen Node Success ? Next Time Increment t=t+1 Untenabl e Condition in Node? Update Passenger's Record Update Passenger's Record as Dead Is Node an Exit? Any more Passenge r ? End of Simulation Yes No Yes No YesNo Flow Chart of Egress Model

10. Passengers 12345678910 Probability (%) 10099.999.585.792.699.199.996.999.590.1 Exit taken Last Node Before Exit Distance Travelled (ft) Time to Travel (secs) Accumulat ed Incapacita tion Units Surviv al Status P111273035.990 A24133158100.500 S311262226.060 S45273067120.980 E54151358.910 N63142768103.090 G752750105189.000 E85272862112.490 R95279814.360 10017 116210.371 RESULTS

12. Summary Hazard distribution function has been found to be appropriate allowing modifications as the process enfolds. This investigation has highlighted the areas where relevant data are not available. Reasonable estimates can be derived for management, safety, insurance, assurance and aircraft developmental purpose. Probability of survival is one of the derivatives of the simulation