Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years.

Published byZoe Holt Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years."— Presentation transcript:

1 Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years

2 Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years The Technique 2012-13 Verification Analogs for Upcoming Winter The Forecast

3 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far…

4 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year …

5 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

6 Analog Seasonal Forecasting Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year. Look at this year so far… Look for past years that are similar to this year … Use what subsequently happened in those past years as a forecast for what will happen this year.

7 Climate Indices PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) PNA (Pacific North American Index) NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Jones NAO EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) TNH ONI NTA (North Tropical Atlantic Index) CAR (Caribbean Index) MEI BEST Nino 3 Nino 1+2 Nino 3+4 Nino 4 Pacific Warm Pool Tropical Pacific SST EOF TNA TSA WHWP WP (West Pacific Index) QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PMM (Pacific Meridional Mode) NP (North Pacific Index) NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum NOI (Northern Oscillation Index) AO (Arctic Oscillation) AAO TNI Atlantic Tripole SST EOF AMO AMM (Atlantic Meridional Mode) ACE (Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Intensities) Solar Cycle (Flux) Monthly Hurricane Total MDR Hurricanes SST Anomaly MDR - Tropics SST Anomaly Central India Monsoon Precipitation Sahel Rainfall Brazil Rainfall SW USA Monsoon Global Mean Temperature ESPI Globally integrated angular momentum

8

9

10

11 Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry Not just the index… But sensible weather… IE Warm/Cool… Wet/Dry

12 Automate the Process Compare each previous year to this year… Compute a “Goodness of Fit” number… Sort “Goodness of Fit”… Print/Save results… Do this for multiple indices… Find “Consensus” analog years

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20 Last Year’s

21 2012/13 Forecast Summary Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near

22 2012/13 Forecast Summary Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Observed: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Below Near Above Near Above Above Below Below Below Near Above

23 2012/13 Forecast Summary Forecast: Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Near Above Near Near Near Below Above Below Near Above Near Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Observed: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Near Below Near Above Near Above Above Below Below Below Near Above   

24 2012/13 Verification 3 “Hits” 6 One-category errors 3 Two-category errors

25 On to Next Winter…

26

27

28 Last Year’s Indices CPC SOI, MEI, ONI, BOM SOI, Nino 3.4 Anom, Nino 3 Temps, Nino 4 Temps, PNA, PDO, NAO, AO, WP, and the QBO.

29 This Year’s Indices CPC SOI MEIONIPDO

30

31 Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09

32 Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06

33 Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08

34 Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07 Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07

35 Choosing Analogs Art or Science? Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07 Jim Little: 1961/62 2007/08 1967/68 1996/97 1964/65 2001/02 Steve Pierce: 1959/60 1962/63 1985/96 1990/91 2001/02 2008/09 Rod Hill: 1979/80 1981/82 1985/86 1996/97 2005/06 George Taylor: 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1988/89 2007/08 Pete Parsons: 1967/68 1980/81 2006/07 Jim Little: 1961/62 2007/08 1967/68 1996/97 1964/65 2001/02

36 Choosing Analogs Art or Science? 1959/60 1961/62 1962/63 1964/65 1967/68 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1979/80 1980/81 1959/60 1961/62 1962/63 1964/65 1967/68 1970/71 1973/74 1975/76 1979/80 1980/81 1981/82 1985/86 1988/89 1990/91 1996/97 2001/02 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

37

38 Composites November…

39

40

41

42

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54 Composites December…

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63 Composites January…

64

65

66

67

68

69 Composites February…

70

71

72

73

74

75 Composites March…

76

77

78

79

80

81 2013/14 Forecast Summary Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near

82 Cascades

83 2013/14 Forecast Summary Climate Division 4 – North Cascades Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Below Below Near Near Near Below Near Above Above Below Above Above

84 23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th1st 1961 211312 111086 1964 6011222281814 1967 0011 10 2224 1996 2624 28293034 2001 7610MM2730 48 2007 15 1316223036 Government Camp Snow November Snow Depth in Inches Thanksgiving – Nov 28th

85 23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th1st 1961 211312 111086 1964 6011222281814 1967 0011 10 2224 1996 2624 28293034 2001 7610MM2730 48 2007 15 1316223036 Snow Depth in Inches Government Camp Snow November Thanksgiving – Nov 28th 5 out of 6 years: Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving Weekend Opening 5 out of 6 years: Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving Weekend Opening

86 23d24th25th26th27th28th29th30th31st 1961 282631403630292827 1964 6410616 223033 1967 2220161294321 1996 53656467 68715250 2001 56 545250 48 2007 4348 596165687470 Government Camp Snow December Snow Depth in Inches

87 Questions? Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics

88 Questions? Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics

89 Questions? Climate Division 2 – Willamette Valley Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Temp: Precip: Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near Below Near Near Near Below Near Near Above Near Below Above Near jim@mail.wxnorthwest.com http://weather.wxnorthwest.com/2013 Winter Forecast Graphics

Download ppt "Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years."

Similar presentations

Scott's 2012-2013 Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?

Scott's Winter Forecast ! How do I make a forecast?
Seasonal Climate Forecast Dec. 2012 – Feb. 2013 (Issued: November 15, 2012) This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in.

Seasonal Climate Forecast Dec – Feb (Issued: November 15, 2012) This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in.
October Winter Forecast 2011-12 October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist 503-945-7448 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist.

October Winter Forecast October 29, 2011 Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons, ODF Meteorologist.
Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools.

Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Objective Techniques In Analog Seasonal Forecasts Analog Forecasting Objectively Picking Analogs Tools.
Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.

Consolidated Seasonal Rainfall Guidance for Africa, November 2013 Initial Conditions Issued 7 November 2013 Forecast maps Forecast Background – ENSO update.
1 Carl Schreck History El Niño/La Niña Climate Modes.

1 Carl Schreck History El Niño/La Niña Climate Modes.
Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years.

Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years Seasonal Forecasts using Objectively Chosen Analog Years.
Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.

Climate Forecasting Unit Climate of the Month January-February 2012 Melanie Davis.
PDO/PNA The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is an index derived from North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and it has a high correlation to.

PDO/PNA The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is an index derived from North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies and it has a high correlation to.
1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Seasonal Climate Forecast Nov. 2014 – Jan. 2015 (Issued: October 20, 2014) This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in.

Seasonal Climate Forecast Nov – Jan (Issued: October 20, 2014) This Product is Published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in.
The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial.

The Potential for Skill across the range of the Seamless-Weather Climate Prediction Problem Brian Hoskins Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial.
Extratropical climate. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation?

Extratropical climate. Review of last lecture Mean state: The two basic regions of SST? Which region has stronger rainfall? What is the Walker circulation?
Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary

Regional Rainfall Forecast maps Summary
HOW TO MAKE A CLIMATE GRAPH CLIMATE GRAPHING ASSIGNMENT PT.2.

HOW TO MAKE A CLIMATE GRAPH CLIMATE GRAPHING ASSIGNMENT PT.2.
2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes.

2009 global climate: A tale of five timeseries Global mean temperature El Ni ñ o / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation Annular modes.
Review of Northern Winter 2010/11

Review of Northern Winter 2010/11
Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16 th December 2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy,

Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16 th December 2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate and Consultancy,
Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( www.aaas.org/spp/rd) September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.

Excerpts of the AAAS Fiscal Year 2009 Appropriations Summary ( September 2008 summary: Congress has made little progress on the federal.
The dominant patterns of climate variability John M. Wallace Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.

The dominant patterns of climate variability John M. Wallace Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google