1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 The State of the Church in Washington 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Washington, and what the complete “State of the Church in Washington” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Washington that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWA20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWA20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Washington Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Washington?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Washington will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Washington has an average church attendance percentage (14.0%) much lower than the national average (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Washington.

8. Washington- Percentage of Population Attending a Christian Church on a Given Weekend by County - 2000 11% Kitsap 6.0% Ferry 6.6% San Juan 8.1% Pend Oreille 8.5% Jefferson 8.8% Okanogan 9.5% Mason 10.0% Stevens 10.9% Grays Harbor 11.0% Snohomish 11.3% Island 12.0% Kittitas 12.1% Clallam 12.2% Skamania 12.4% Douglas 12.5% Clark 12.6% Pacific 12.6% Kitsap 12.7% Klickitat 12.8% Cowlitz 13.1% Thurston 13.5% Wahkiakum 13.6% Pierce 13.6% Whatcom 13.9% Benton 14.2% Grant 14.4% Whitman 14.8% Spokane 14.8% Yakima 15.0% Lewis 15.1% Lincoln 15.3% King 16.2% Chelan 16.6% Asotin 17.2% Skagit 17.5% Columbia 18.2% Walla 19.5% Franklin 21.1% Adams 25.0% Garfield 0.0% to 12.4% 12.4% to 14.8% 14.8% to 26.0%

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Washington. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. Washington- 2000 Population by County 2,397 Garfield 3,824 Wahkiakum 4,064 Columbia 7,260 Ferry 9,872 Skamania 10,184 Lincoln 11,732 Pend Oreille 14,077 San Juan 16,428 Adams 19,161 Klickitat 20,551 Asotin 20,984 Pacific 25,953 Jefferson 32,603 Douglas 33,362 Kittitas 39,564 Okanogan 40,066 Stevens 40,740 Whitman 49,347 Franklin 49,405 Mason 55,180 Walla 64,525 Clallam 66,616 Chelan 67,194 Grays Harbor 68,600 Lewis 71,558 Island 74,698 Grant 92,948 Cowlitz 102,979 Skagit 142,475 Benton 166,814 Whatcom 207,355 Thurston 222,581 Yakima 231,969 Kitsap 345,238 Clark 417,939 Spokane 606,024 Snohomish 700,820 Pierce 1,737,034 King 0 to 20,000 20,000 to 100,000 100,000 to 1,737,035

11. Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next 2 Slides show the ethnicity of Washington in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.

13. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use13

14. Complete Presentation has Graph of 2000 Ethnicity

15. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use15

16. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use16 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Washington in 1990 and 2000. Evangelicals, Catholics and Mainline denominations have all grown in attendance. While overall worship attendance has increased, the population has also grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. There was a slight increase in the percentage of the population attending Evangelical churches but, on the whole, the percentage attending church in Washington has decreased.

17. © 2004 by David T. Olson

18. Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Washington in 1990 and 2000.

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson

22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Washington.

23. Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

24. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27

28. Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Washington in 2000.

30. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

31. Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

32. Washington- Percentage of Population Attending a Catholic Church on a Given Weekend by County - 2000 11% Kitsap 1.4% Columbia 1.7% Pend Oreille 1.8% Stevens 1.9% Wahkiakum 2.1% Mason 2.1% Skamania 2.1% San Juan 2.2% Jefferson 2.2% Island 2.2% Cowlitz 2.3% Snohomish 2.3% Kitsap 2.3% Clark 2.3% Whatcom 2.4% Lewis 2.4% Clallam 2.4% Asotin 2.4% Ferry 2.5% Thurston 2.6% Pierce 2.7% Kittitas 2.9% Klickitat 2.9% Okanogan 3.0% Pacific 3.1% Lincoln 3.2% Grays Harbor 3.2% Benton 3.4% Whitman 3.5% Walla 3.7% Chelan 3.7% Douglas 3.8% Spokane 4.4% Grant 4.7% Yakima 4.7% King 5.4% Skagit 5.9% Garfield 9.0% Adams 9.8% Franklin 0.0% to 2.3% 2.3% to 3.3% 3.3% to 10.8%

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. 12 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 27 counties declined.

34. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Washington between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 18 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 21 counties declined. For mainline churches, 3 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 36 counties declined. For Catholics, 11 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 28 counties declined.

36. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

37. Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

38. Washington- Counties 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in Percentage of the Population at Worship in Catholic Churches on any Given Sunday Blue = Decline Rose = Growth -49.5% San Juan -38.3% Kittitas -35.8% Klickitat -30.1% Benton -20.8% Lewis -18.5% Franklin -18.5% Pend Oreille -17.5% Kitsap -17.1% Stevens -17.1% Island -15.8% Douglas -13.9% Chelan -12.9% Clallam -11.2% Adams -10.9% Cowlitz -9.6% Okanogan -9.3% Pierce -8.4% Columbia -8.1% Asotin -7.4% Whatcom -7.2% Spokane -7.0% Ferry -6.6% Lincoln -5.8% Walla -1.3% Clark -0.8% Thurston -0.3% Mason -0.3% Grant 0.6% Garfield 2.1% Whitman 2.1% Yakima 2.6% Grays Harbor 7.3% King 10.5% Snohomish 17.4% Jefferson 19.4% Skamania 66.3% Pacific 121.0% Skagit 350.7% Wahkiakum -100.0% to 0.0% 0.0% to 500.0%

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Washington in the past decade. There was a net gain of 195 churches. However, 834 churches were needed to keep up with population growth in Washington from 1990 - 2000.

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 The State of the Church in Washington... Because of strong population growth in Washington, the church has both great opportunities and great challenges.. Although church attendance has grown for all three groups numerically, the percentage of the population attending Mainline and Catholic churches have decreased. The percentage of the population attending church has decreased, resulting in a 2.6% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Washington. Six hundred and thirty-nine additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.

42. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use42 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Washington Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWA20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UWA20.htm The Complete Seattle Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Seattle.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Seattle.htm The Complete Spokane Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Spokane.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Spokane.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Washington and Birmingham Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/WA0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/WA0.htm

43. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use43 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 23% and 25% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 26% – 28%.

44. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use44 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

45. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use45 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.